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MARKET TREND Higher CK, up 2, SK, up 7, WK, up 3

April 24, 2017 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Higher: CK, up $.02; SK, up $.0725; WK, up $.03; KWK, up $.0325

·       MACRO—Investment banker Macron leads populist Marine Le Pen in Tour Eiffel Round #1; Euro gains on the U.S. $; risk on.  ASIA—Mostly higher:   Nikkei, +1.37%; Shanghai, -1.37%; Hang Seng, +.41%.  EUROPE—Sharply higher: DAX, +3.00%; FTSE, +1.89%; CAC, +4.47%.   Wall STREET-Futures are also sharply higher:  DOW, +217; S&P, +28.50; NAS, +59.50.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.989 @ 98.74; April Gold, -$16.10 @ $1,271; May Crude, +$0.50 @ $50.12 

·       T-storm Weather: Light rainfall of 0.20”-0.40” affects spring wheat in much of the northern Plains today, while most other areas stay dry.  Pockets of thunderstorms develop west to east across the central Plains and Corn Belt Tue.-Thu, slowing planting in varying areas while turning some HRW wheat wetter from scattered 0.75”-1.50” amounts.  The main system moves across the Plains Fri.-Sat. and the Corn Belt Sat.-Mon., producing several rounds of strong thunderstorms

·       Corn: CK up $.02 @ $3.59; CN up $.0175 @ $3.6550.   Fund selling was estimated at 1 K on Friday        

·       SB: up $0725 @ $9.5825; SN up $.07 @ $9.6775.  Funds: Bought 2 SB, 2 SBM & sold 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.81, -1; LY; $.73

·       Wheat: WK up $.03 @ $4.08; WN up $.0350 @ $4.2450. Friday found the funds even in their trading activities   

CORN/SORGHUM

·       July 2017 corn futures on Friday traded to $3.60 ¾—lowest level for calendar year 2017—before settling at $3.63 ¾

·       T-storm Weather: A major system moves across the central U.S. through early next week, producing widespread coverage of above-normal rain next 7-10 days; 1.25”-3.75” affects most corn—highest coverage in Illinois & Missouri

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Corn, 40.6 mbu needed; 52.3 last week.  Milo—3.3 needed; 5.5 last week

·       ATI Research: Given minimal change between the May & final U.S. corn yield, & limited change to stocks-to-use ratio in May & December, definite downward seasonal price trend exists for CZ futures into harvest—but volatility possible

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 12.6 mbu needed; 15.8 last week

·       T-storm Weather: A powerful system moves across Argentina soybeans Tue.-Wed., triggering a round of rain; 0.75”-1.50” affects most areas.  Dry weather follows for an extended period of time as conditions for harvesting improve

·       CBT May wheat futures on Friday traded to $4.00—the lowest price for nearby CBT wheat futures since Dec. 27, 2016

·       T-storm Weather: Heavy rain is likely across U.S. Plains over April 28-May 1, likely increasing the magnitude of wetness for HRW wheat

·       Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT: Wheat, 24.8 needed; 24.7 last week

ENERGY

·       Firm: CLM17, +$0.50 @ $50.12; EBM, +.55 @ $52.51;EBM-QCLM, +.06; RBM,+$.0079; NGM, +$0.008; HOM, +$.0133

·       A mixed trend persisted in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago added ¼; New York declined 2 ½; Gulf eased 1; Dallas fell 1 ½; Tampa down 2; but LA was ½ higher at $1.80 per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were lower on Friday: 2016’s down 2 at 48-51; and 2017’s eased 2 to 48-51

·       The May RBOB/May ethanol spread narrowed in 3 centson Friday to +$.02050/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                       &nbs​p;             

·     &nb​sp; Choice boxed beef values firmed $1.44 on Friday to $217.16, and are $5.08 higher vs. last week

·       Cattle on Feed: Apr 1 on feed, 100.5% (99.9% avg est); Mar place, 111.1% (107.5%); Mar Marketed, 109.6% (109.5%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout gained 96-cents on Friday to $74.98, and is 74-cents higher vs. a week ago 

·       CME Lean Hog Index was $0.49 lower on Fri. at $61.10.  May futures declined $0.775 but are $1.925above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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