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MARKET TREND Higher CK, up 2, SK, up 4, WK, up 3

March 29, 2017 07:03 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Higher: CK, up $.0250; SK, up $.04; WK, up $.03; KWK, up $.0225

·        MACRO—Markets may open higher, favorable economic data out yesterday, earnings and Feb pending home sales to be released this morning.  ASIA—Mostly higher:  Nikkei, +0.08%; Shanghai, -0.36%; Hang Seng, +0.19%.  EUROPE—Mostly higher:  DAX, +0.37%; FTSE, -0.12%; CAC, +0.06%.   Wall STREET-Futures are mixed:  DOW, -13; S&P, -2.42; NAS, +2.25.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +0.111 @ 99.500;  April Gold, -$4.30 @ $1,251.30; May Crude, +$0.28 @ $48.65 

·        T-storm Weather: A near-ideal setup causes three systems to move across the central U.S. and produce heavy rain over the next 10 days (away from the northern Corn Belt and northern Plains).  The most notable event occurs through today in the central and southern Plains as dryness is fully wiped out in a matter of days for the third consecutive spring, while also producing heavy rain across the Delta and southeast half of the Corn Belt Thursday-Friday

·        Corn: CK up $.0250 @ $3.6025; CN up $.0225 @ $3.6775.  The funds were said to be buyers of 5 K on Tuesday

·        SB: SK up $.04 @ $9.76; SN up $.04 @ $9.8625.  Funds: sold 1 SB, 1 SBM, bot 2 SBO.  Board Crush: $.79, +2: LY;  $.60

·        Wheat: WK up $.03 @ $4.2750; WN, up $.0275 @ $4.4025.  The funds bought 4 K    

CORN/SORGHUM

·        Consultant: Brazil corn crop production estimate is unchanged this week at 88.0 MMT.  The weather continues to be beneficial for the safrinha (double crop) corn in most areas.  Corn in Mato Grosso will start to pollinate in April

·        ATI Research: Weekly U.S. ethanol production/grind continues to exceed expectations.  As a result, the annual ethanol & by-products estimate is increased 30 mbu to a record 5.415 bbu

·        T-storm Weather: Heavy rain the next 10 days set to break or diminish drought in the U.S. Delta & southern Corn Belt

·        Ethanol margins: $0.18 per gallon—up from $0.12 last week but below $0.26 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Consultant: Brazil soybean crop est. at 108.0 MMT but could rise.  According to AgRural, nationwide harvest is 68%.  But harvest in Rio Grande do Sul—the #3 producing state—is only 22% & farmers are reporting extremely good yields

·        T-storm Weather: Heavy rain likely into at least early next week across western quarter to third of Argentina soybeans

·        Minneapolis 2017 Sept. wheat futures closed at $5.49 on Tue.; one year ago, Minneapolis 2016 Sept. settled at $5.40

·        T-storm Weather: Upcoming rain likely to sharply diminish proportion of U.S. HRW wheat that was drier than normal over the last 60 days by at least 50 points (currently 65%), similar to (but several weeks earlier) than the last 2 years

ENERGY

·        Firmer: CLK17, +$0.28 @ $48.65; EBK, $+0.36 @ $51.69; EBK-QCLK, +.07; RBK, +$.0089; NGK, +$0.040; HOK, +$.0015

·        EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +1.0 (+1.9); Gasoline, -1.9 (-1.1); Distillates, -1.0 (-2.0)

·        Cash ethanol markets were firmer on Tuesday: Chicago up 1 5/8; New York added 1; Gulf gained 1 ¾; Tampa and Dallas climbed 1; and LA was 1 higher at $1.67 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs eased on Tuesday: 2015’s off ¾ at 53-55; 2016’s fell ¾ to 54-56; & 2017’s declined 5/8 to 54 ¼-56

·        The April RBOB/April ethanol spread sipped $.0040 to +$.07490/gallonTuesday,premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                     &​nbsp;              

·  &​nbsp;     Choice boxed beef values declined 34-cents on Tuesday to $219.57, and are $5.36 lower compared to a week ago

·        Cash cattle trading was very quiet on Tuesday, with asking prices in the South pegged around $132 to $133

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was $1.37 lower on Tuesday at $77.03, and is down $3.38 vs. last week

·        CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.46 on Tuesday to $69.78.  April futures were $0.55 lower and are $4.68 below the index             

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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