HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND--Higher: CH, up $.0225; SF, up $.0075; WH, up $.04; KWH, up $.0450
· MACRO: “Caution” the operative word—lower commodity prices, political challenges in the EU, recent rally, jobs report today. ASIA-Down: Nikkei, -0.47%; Hang Seng, -1.37%; Shanghai, -0.88%. EUROPE-Lower: FTSE, -0.98%; DAX, -0.93%; CAC, -1.30%. Wall STREET: Futures are lower: DOW, -29; S&P, -5.50; NASDAQ, -22.75. EXTERNALS: $ Index, -.029 @ 101.070; Gold, +$3.00 @ $1,170; Jan Crude,-$0.69 @ $50.37. Deliveries: SBM, 3; SBO, 382; HRW, 410; SRW, 591; Oats, 18
· T-storm Weather: Waves of energy and / or the remnants of cool fronts trigger thunderstorms within much of Brazil over the next 10 days, especially central and north where near-normal rainfall of 2.00"-4.00" is likely. Southern areas (and Paraguay) also receive rain, especially from Parana north – including some of the driest areas. Note that highest chances in driest areas are Friday-Saturday when the most organized wave passes. In Argentina, dry and increasingly hot weather occur through Saturday
· Corn: CH up $.0225 @ $3.4475; CZ up $.0150 @ $3.3325. More fund selling, 7 K on Thursday
· SB: SF up $.0075 @ $10.3050; SH, up $.0125 @ $10.4025. Funds—sold 4 SB, 4 SBM, bot 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.75, .00; LY, $.71
· Wheat: WH up $.0425 @ $3.9975; WZ up $.0150 @ $3.73. Fund selling continues with 5 K sold yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Corn Export Sales were light at 30.0 (35-47 expected). Strong week of milo interest, a marketing year high of 8.9 mbu
· CZ16 closed at $3.3175 yesterday, it’s weakest finish since $3.2925 on September 29th
· On the other hand, October corn grind was up 18% yr to yr at 504 mbu & suggests USDA raise forecast 25-50 mbu
· Consultant: Critical growing season for full-season corn in southern Brazil is at hand; e.g. 11% and 20% of corn in Parana & Rio Grande do Sul (RGDS) is pollinating, respectively
· T-storm Weather: Ample rain is forecast for full-season corn across Parana the next 10 days, but drier for RGDS
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Soybean Export Sales report. Beans were decent at 51.4 (trade: 37-51) with 13/week needed. SBO sales were a strong 54.6 K (trade: 5-60); meal was mediocre/so-so at 150 (trade: 120-300)
· BOZ16 made a new contract high Thursday in closing up .0085 at $.3764/pound--biodiesel
· NASS October SB crush at 175.9, ½ mbu above trade average. Oil stocks were 86 million pounds more than expected
· Wheat Export Sales report. Good. 17.8 versus 11-18 expected and 10+/wk needed. China bought 2.2; HRS sales very good at 8.1 TW (11.5 LW) as protein is in demand
· T-storm Weather: Brunt of heavy rain this weekend includes drought-stricken U.S. SRW wheat in Delta & SE, not HRW
ENERGY
· Lower: CLF16, -$0.69 @ $50.37; EBG, -$1.01; EBG-CLF, $2.56, -$0.33; RBF, -$.0258; NGF, -$.016; HOF, -$.0170
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher on Thursday: Chicago added 1 ¼; New York down ¼; Gulf and Dallas up ½; Tampa increased ¼; and LA was ½ higher at $1.81 ¼ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs much stronger: 2015’s up 7 ¼ to 105-114; 2016’s added 7 ¼ to 105-114; & 2017’s gained 6 ¾ to 104-114
· With crude increasing, the Dec RBOB/Dec ethanol inverse shrank further, losing $.0595 to -$0.10800/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ; </wbr>
· Choice boxed beef values increased 56-cents on Thursday to $190.51, and are $3.87 higher vs. the previous week
· Light trading developed in the North on Thursday, with prices quoted at $175—up $2 compared to last week
· USDA mandatory pork carcass gained $1.09 on Thursday to $73.76, and is $1.04 higher vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.58 on Thu. at $48.80. December futures eased $0.80 but are $1.425 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather