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MARKET TREND FIrmer CU Up 1, SQ Unchanged, WU Up 3

July 28, 2016 07:30 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—FIrmer--CU: Up $.0125; SQ: Up $.0025;  WU: Up $.0475; KWU: Up $.0425

·        MACRO: Fed holds rates steady; no insight into timing of future changes; investors increasingly doubtful of a Sep rate hike  ASIA:  The Nikkei closed 1.13% lower; the Hang Seng gave up .2% and Shanghai rose very slightly, +.10%. EUROPE:  A little softer with the DAX off .01%; the CAC is .11 lower and the FTSE, down .17%..   WALL STREET:  Pre-Markets are positive with DOW futures up 10; the NAS is 1 higher and the S&+, +2.  EXTERNALS: The $ Index is down a ½ point at 96.52; August gold is $12.70 to the plus side @ $1,339.40 & Sep crude is down $.05 @ $41.87.60 lower at $1,320.20 and September crude is off $.21 @ $42.71/barrel.  

·        T-storm Weather: Cool surface-level high pressure slides across the Corn Belt through Saturday-Sunday, keeping maximum temps in the 70s-80s and minimums in the 50s-60s over the next 4-5 days.  Several waves of energy and a storm system combine to produce showers and thunderstorms (scattered 0.25”-0.75” amounts) within much of the central U.S. through Saturday, while heavy rain of 1.25”-2.50” is limited to/adjacent the Delta and possible parts of/near Kansas-Missouri-Nebraska

·        Corn: CU Up $.0125 @ $3.37; CZ Up $.0125 @ $3.4425.  The funds bought 2 K yesterday

·        SB:  SQ Up $.0025  @ $10.1075;  SX Up $.0175  @ $9.8775.   Funds: bot 3 SB, 2 SBM; sold 2 SBO.  Aug crush, -$.10, $.73; LY: $1.19

·        Wheat:  WU Up $.0475 @ $4.1950;  WZ Up $.04 @ $4.4550.  The funds sold 2 K at mid-week    

CORN/SORGHUM                     &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;             

·  &nbs​p;     Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 12-20 mbu for 15/16 corn; 18-26 for 16/17

·        T-storm Weather: Temps turn much warmer west to east July 31-Aug. 2; max. in 90s, min. in 70s for several days.  Warmer pattern shifts main storm track to central U.S.; result is widespread coverage of near- & above-normal rain

·        ATI Research: The 5-year average shows that approximately 15% of the U.S. corn crop pollinates from July 24-31.  With corn silking pegged at 79% as of July 24, this suggests the national total could top 90% by this weekend

·        Consultant: Brazil safrinha corn harvest continues to show disappointing yields; more cuts in crop size are possible

·        Ethanol grind: 998,000 barrels/day for week end July 22—down 3.0% vs. last week but 3.4% higher vs. last year

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for 15/16 soybeans; 22-29 for 16/17; soymeal, 50-200 K MT for old- crop and 25-100 new-crop; soyoil, 5-35 K MT for old crop and 0-10 for new-crop 

·        ATI Research: Sept. 1 S American soybean stocks dn 325 mbu v. ‘15; supports higher U.S. Sept-Nov exports v. last year

·        November 2016 soybean futures closed at $9.86 on Wed.; one year ago, November 2015 contract settled at $9.43 ¼

·        Export Sales report.  Trade expects 15-22 mbu for 16/17 all wheat

·        T-storm Weather: At least near-normal  rain is forecast for U.S. hard red spring wheat over the next 10 days

ENERGY

·        Lower:   CLU16, -0.04, $41.870; EBU, -0.31; EBU-CLU, $1.25, -$.03; RBU, +.0021;  NGU, -.001; HOU, -$.0021

·        Cash ethanol markets posted slight declines in most markets on Wednesday: Chicago, Tampa and Gulf off ¼; New York declined 1 3/8; Dallas down ½; but LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.64 ½ per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s down3/8 to 96-97 ¼; 2015’s off 3/8 to 96-97 ¼; & 2016’s eased 3/8 to 95 ¾-97

·        The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol inverse widened a penny + to -$.12360/gal  in Wedesday’s session                          &nb​sp;        

 LIVESTOCK/POULTRY          &​nbsp;                          ​;                ​

&​middot;        Choice boxed beef values declined 85-cents on Wednesday and are $2.23 lower compared to last week

·        Cash cattle trading remained very quiet on Wednesday with asking prices of $118 to $120 noted in the South

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value collapsed $3.37 on Wed.—the largest 1-day decline since Dec. 16, 2014

·        CME Lean Hog Index was down $0.76 on Wed. at $74.89.  August futures $2.925 lower & are $3.215 below the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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