HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Firmer: CU: up $.0050; SQ: up $.0325; WU: up $.0450; KWU: up $.0450
· MACRO: Global equity markets move higher ahead of Federal Reserve comments, support coming from a week of respectable earnings results. ASIA—Higher: Nikkei,+0.48%; Shanghai, +0.12%; Hang Seng, +0.33%. EUROPE: Higher: DAX, +0.37%; FTSE, +0.44%; CAC, +0.76%. WALL STREET—Futures are firmer—DOW, +24; S&P, +2.50; NAS,+3.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.047 @ 93.935; Aug Gold:-$5.30 @ $1,248; Sep crude: +$.37 @ $48.26/bl.
· T-storm Weather: A strong cool front triggers one round of thunderstorms in most corn and soybean areas starting today northwest (northeast NE, southeast SD, southwest MN, northwest IA) and ending Thu.-Fri. southeast. Substantial model differences persist, and we continue to forecast scattered 0.50" to 1.50" amounts to account for a number of possibilities, including both driest and wettest areas. A sharply cooler period follows and lasts 7 to 10 days
· CU, up $.0050 @ $3.6925; CZ, up $.0050 @ $3.8275. Fund selling was estimated at 20 K on Tuesday
· SQ, up $.03 @ $9.8475; SX, up $.0325 @ $9.96. Funds: sold 10 K SB, 7 SBM, 0 SBO. Board Crush: $.87, -2; LY, $.83
· WU, up $.0450 @ $4.7850; WZ, up $.0475 @ $5.0375. The 3rd straight day of fund liquidation totaled 10 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: Some showers occur with arrival of cooler temps next week (highs in the 70s-80s & lows in the 50s-60s for most corn), but primarily in the high elevations of the southwestern Plains (western Nebraska & points south)
· ATI Research: Our bias is for U.S. corn exports over the up-coming 4-week period to range near 35.0 mbu per week based on the increasing lineup in Brazil and current world price relationships. Exports last year averaged 51.5/week
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop is est. at 95.0 MMT; thesafrinha (double crop) corn in Mato Grosso is 62% harvested
· Ethanol margins: $0.17 per gallon—down vs. $0.19 last week & well below $0.44 in 2016. EIA report at 9:30 am CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean export point estimate is 15.7 mbu per week compared to 30.8 mbu last year
· T-storm Weather: Next week, a warmer period will probably be needed to boost humidity & create a more favorable setup for rain for U.S. beans. A warmer period will inevitably occur, but appears unlikely until Aug. 5 or later
· MGE September 2017 wheat futures closed at $7.17 ½ Tue.—lowest settlement price for the contract since June 28
· Consultant: There are concerns about adverse weather impacting wheat crops in Brazil and Argentina. Frost last week may have affected the crop in Parana, Brazil while excess rain has affected establishment of wheat in Argentina
ENERGY
· Mixed: CLU17, +$0.37 @ $48.26; EBU, +$0.19 @ $50.39; EBU-QCLU,-.20; RBU, -.0035; NGU, -.019; HOU, +.0007
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.6 (-10.2); Gasoline, -1.1 (+1.9); Distillates, -0.5 (-0.1)
· A steady to weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago off ¼; New York declined 1; Gulf and Dallas unchanged; Tampa eased ½; and LA was 3 ½ lower at $1.75 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs firmed modestly on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s increased ¾ to 81 ½-82 ½
· The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol spread reversed course and widened $.0514 to +$.09120/gallon, premium ETOH
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values firmed 16-cents on Tue. to $207.62, but are still 43-cents lower compared to a week ago
· Since posting a contract high on June 6 of $127.65, August live cattle futures have declined $14.475 (11.3%)
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 70-cents on Tuesday to $101.97, but is still down $1.98 vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.69 on Tue. to $90.44. August futures gained $1.075 but are still $8.99 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather