HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Firmer: CN: up $.0375; SN: up $.0375; WN: up $.1475; KWN: up $.1450.
· MACRO: Chinese mfg sector rebounds in June on strong overseas demand, 11th straight month of gains. ASIA—Mostly lower: Nikkei, -0.92%; Shanghai, +0.09%; Hang Seng, -0.77%. EUROPE: Higher—DAX, +0.29%; FTSE, +0.15%; CAC, +0.70%. WALL STREET—Futures are higher—DOW, +46; S&P, +5.75; NAS, +20.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.124 @ 95.490; July Gold: -$2.50 @ $1,242; July crude: +$.41 @ $45.34/barrel. Del’ys: SBM, 22; SBO, 267; C, 1,942; HRW, 84; SB, 1,065; SRW, 61
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms affect the southeast half of the Corn Belt & Delta into Sat.; 0.50"-1.50" most common with a swath of higher totals from northern Missouri through northwest Indiana. A couple dry days follow, after which attention turns to a wet circulation that moves across the central Plains & Corn Belt over the course of Sun.-Thu. We continue to forecast 0.75"-1.50" within corn & soybeans in Kansas, Nebraska & the southeast two-thirds of the Corn Belt next week (July 2-6)
· CN, Up $.0375 @ $3.6350; CZ, up $.04 @ $3.84. The funds bought 6 K on Thursday
· SN, Up $.0375 @ $9.1925; SX, up $.0325 @ $9.28. Fund activity: Bot 2 K SB, 2 SBM, 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.89, +2; LY, $.62
· WN, Up $.1475 @ $4.95; WU, up $.1425 @ $5.1025. Fund buying was reported at 10 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· USDA reports at 11:00 am CDT: Trade est. U.S. corn acreage at 89.8 mil (90.0 in March); June 1 corn stocks, 5.125 bbu
· ATI Research: New-crop U.S. export sales of corn stand at 116 mbu, which is the lowest total in 7 years. At the moment, Sep-Nov exports are projected to be down about 200 mbu (36%) from last year
· T-storm Weather: Notably warmer/hot pattern develops in U.S. Plains/western Corn Belt later next week; highs in upper-90s in central Plains to diminish to ~90F in eastern Corn Belt by July 7. Rain most likely in central, eastern areas
· U.S. old-crop corn export sales week end June 22: 12.4 mbu, down 40% from last week & 33% v. the 4-week average
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA report estimates: Trade pegging U.S. soybean acre at 89.9 mil (89.5 in March); June 1 bean stocks, 0.983 bbu
· ATI Research: New-crop U.S. export sales of soybeans stand at 126 mbu, which is the lowest total in 11 years. At the moment, Sep-Nov exports are projected to be down about 133 mbu (14%) from last year
· MGE July wheat futures Thu. closed at $7.41 ¼--highest settlement price for nearby MGE futures since May 15, 2014
· USDA report estimates: Trade pegging U.S. wheat acres at 46.0 mil (46.1 in March); June 1 wheat stocks, 1.136 bbu
· T-storm Weather: Significant rains are unlikely for most U.S. spring wheat short-term; warm to hot in one week
· Export sales of U.S. wheat week end June 22: 18.1 mbu, down 9% from last week and 24% below last year’s 23.7
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLQ17, +$0.41 @ $45.34; EBQ, +$0.28 @ $47.70; EBQ-QCLQ, -.13; RBQ, +.0052; NGQ, -.029; HOQ, +.0104
· A steady to slightly weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Thursday: Chicago down ¼; New York fell 1 ¼; Gulf, Dallas and Tampa were unchanged; and LA was steady at $1.66 per gallon
· Ethanol RINs continue to trend higher on Thursday: 2016’s and 2017’s firmed 1 ½ to 70-72 ½
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread was little changed on Thursday, with RBOB at a +$.01060/gallon premium
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· Choice boxed beef values were $2.88 lower on Thursday at $226.55, and are down $16.33 vs. a week ago
· Hogs and Pigs report: All hogs & pigs, 103.4% (103.3% avg. est); breeding, 101.5% (101.4%); market, 103.6% (103.4%)
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 64-cents lower on Thursday at $101.84, but is still up $2.87 vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was up $0.16 on Thu. to $91.66. July futures gained $1.55 but are still $2.185 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather