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MARKET TREND Firmer CN, up 4, SN, up 2, WN, up 3

May 31, 2017 07:24 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Firmer: CN, up $.0375; SN, up $.0175; WN, up $.0325; KWN, up $.04

·       MACRO—China PMI favorable at 51.2 for May; Washington political uncertainy continues to make markets uneasy; up-coming  Europe elections in the UK and Italy cast doubts.  ASIA—Mixed:  Nikkei, -0.14%; Shanghai, +0.24%;  Hang Seng, -0.16%.   EUROPE—Mostly higher: DAX, +0.12%; FTSE, +0.19%; CAC, -0.01%. Wall Street-Futures are mostly higher:  DOW, -6;  S&P, +0.75; NAS, +7.00.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +.003 @ 97.010; June Gold, +2 @ $1,264; July Crude, -$089 @ $48.77

·       T-storm Weather: Coolness continues through today, then breaks as the next system approaches.  Expanding warmth initially causes thunderstorms to dot parts of the Corn Belt Thu.-Fri., after which scattered rain affects a large area Sat.-Sun.; 0.25"-0.75" totals across northern Plains contrasts with 0.75"-1.50" in and adjacent the Corn Belt.  Temps turn much cooler once the system exits, leaving most corn and soybeans cooler than normal over the next 10 days (despite mildness late this week and weekend)

·       Corn: CN up $.0375 @ $3.7075; CZ up $.04 @ $3.8975.  The funds were large sellers yesterday, an estimated 10 K     

·       SB: SN up $.0175@ $9.1450; SX down $.0025 @ $9.1950.   Funds: sold 7 SB, 4 SB & 3 SBO.  Board Crush: $.88, +3; LY; $1.44

·       Wheat: up $.0325 @ $4.3275; WU up $.0275 @ $4.4675.   The funds began the shortened week selling 5 K      

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 65% Good/Excellent, versus expectations of 65-70% and 72% last year.  Poorest conditions are noted in Indiana, Ohio, Illinois and Missouri, while the best ratings are in Nebraska, Iowa and Minnesota

·       ATI Research: Initial yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop est. at 165.5 bpa, versus May USDA projection of 170.7

·       U.S. corn was 91% planted as of May 28th, versus 93% last year and the 5-year avg. of 93% 

·       T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms gradually unfold from west to east as next week progresses (June 6-10), breaking drying after 2-4 days.  A warmer period likely follows beyond June 10 as more systems approach and / or pass

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       July 2017 soybean futures on Tuesday traded to $9.10 ½--the lowest price for nearby futures since April 8, 2016

·       U.S.  soybean planting progress is estimated at 67% compared to 71% last year and the 5-year average of 68%.  Emergence is pegged at 37% vs. 42% last year and the average of 40%

·       T-storm Weather: Conditions for soybean planting improving; only 31% of crop was wetter than normal the last week

·       USDA Crop Progress report show U.S. winter wheat Good/Excellent ratings declined 2 points to 50%; however, winter production edged fractionally higher to 1.244 bbu (HRW, 0.719; SRW, 0.301; and White, 0.224)

·       Initial crop ratings for U.S. spring wheat: 62% Good/Excellent v. 79% last year; HRS crop est. at 467 mbu (v. 493 in ’16)

ENERGY

·       Weaker: CLN17, -0.89 @ $48.87; EBN, -1.05 @ $50.80;EBN-QCLN, -.15; RBN,-.026; NGN, +.004; HON, -.0265

·       Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Tuesday: Chicago added 1 5/8; New York off ½;Gulf up 1 ¼; Tampa added ½; Dallas down 1; and LA was ½ lower at $1.71 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were firmer on Tuesday: 2016’s and 2017’s were 3 ¼ higher at 72-74 ½ 

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread gained $.0130 to begin the weeking, rising to +$.12390/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                             &nb​sp;       

·       Choice boxed beef values fell 35-cents on Tuesday to $245.25 , and are $2.63 lower compared to a week ago

·       5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $2.76 v. last week at $131.50/cwt, but is up $6.51 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was 19-cents lower on Tuesday at $89.53, but is up $1.45 vs. last week

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $50.47/cwt vs. last week’s $48.31, last month’s $44.51 & last year’s $44.23       

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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