HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Firmer:  CN:  up $.0175; SN: up $.0725; WN: up $.03; KWN: up $.0275

·       MACRO: Europe lower on ECB head Draghi’s loose money comments; Asia—traders seek direction from several key central bankers’ prepared remarks.  ASIA—Mostly higher: Nikkei, +0.36%; Shanghai, +0.19%; Hang Seng, -0.12%. EUROPE: Lower—DAX, -0.42%; FTSE, -0.02%; CAC, -0.47%.  WALL STREET—Futures are lower—DOW, -21; S&P, -3.00; NAS, -3.55.  EXTERNALS:  $ Index: -.461 @ 96.655; gold: +$5.30 @ $1,252;  July crude: +$.44 @ $43.85/barrel

·       T-storm Weather: Cool & warm air battle for position over the next 7-10 days, leaving most areas near to slightly cooler than normal through the period.  Waves of energy trigger thunderstorms each day within the central U.S. from Wed. forward, resulting in widespread coverage of heavy rain across & adjacent the Corn Belt.  Thunderstorms begin in earnest tonight & Wed. across/near western half of Corn Belt & adjacent areas of Plains, then fluctuate within the central U.S. over the following week

·       CN, Up $.0175 @ $3.6075; CZ, up $.0150 @ $3.7850.  Fund buying was estimated at 2 K on Monday          

·       SN, Up $.0725 @ $9.145; SX, up $.07 @ $9.2075.   Fund activity: Bot 1 K SB, 1 SBM, sld 1 SBO. Board Crush: $.87, -2; LY, $.56

·       WN, Up $.03 @ $4.53; WU, up $.03 @ $4.6850.  The funds sold 8 K yesterday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·       U.S. corn crop is rated 67% Good/Excellent versus 67% last week (75% last year).  Silking is pegged at 4% compared to 5% last year and the 5-year average of 5%

·       ATI Research: Updated yield estimate for the 2017 U.S. corn crop is 165.9 bpa versus June USDA projection of 170.7

·       T-storm Weather: Rainfall of 1.50" to 3.50" is forecast in the U.S. Corn Belt over the next 7-10 days with the potential for higher amounts, especially central and south

·       June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. corn acreage at 89.8 mil (90.0 in March); June 1 corn stocks est. 5.125 bbu

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       U.S. soybean crop is rated 66% Good/Excellent versus 67% last week (72% last year).  Blooming is pegged at 9% compared to 8% last year and the 5-year average of 7%

·       T-storm Weather: A notably warmer period likely begins around July 5 for U.S. soybeans and then continues.  Thunderstorms will be less frequent than this week but at least some are expected, especially north and east

·       June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. soybean acre at 89.9 mil (89.5 in March); June 1 bean stocks est. 0.983 bbu

·       USDA Crop Progress: Winter wheat est. +3 mbu to 1.242 bbu; HRS est. (adjusted for lower harv acres) -37 mbu to 375

·       June 30 USDA reports: Trade pegging U.S. wheat acres at 46.0 mil (46.1 in March); June 1 wheat stocks est. 1.136 bbu

ENERGY

·       Firmer: CLQ17, +$0.45@ $43.85; EBQ, +$0.48@ $46.31;EBQ-QCLQ, +.03; RBQ, +.0168; NGQ, +.017; HOQ, +.0189

·       Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Monday: Chicago down 5/8; New York up 5/8; Gulf unchanged; Tampa added ½;  Dallas firmed 1 ½; and LA was ½ lower at $1.65 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were weaker on Monday: 2016’s and 2017’s declined 1 ¾ to 70-73 

·       The July RBOB/July ethanol inverse opened the week little changed, widening $.0014 to -$.05830/gallon 

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                  ​                   

·​;       Choice boxed beef values fell $1.18 on Monday to $238.57, and are $10.18 lower vs. a week ago

·       5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price down $8.62 v. last week at $121.50/cwt, but is up $4.76 v. last year

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined 31-centson Monday to $100.13, but is still $1.83 higher vs. last week

·       Current nearby board hog crush value is $49.00/cwt vs. last week’s $47.81, last month’s $50.47 & last year’s $50.96

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather