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MARKET TREND Firmer CN, up 1, SN, Up 2, WN, up 3

May 17, 2017 07:32 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·       MARKET TREND—Firmer: CN, up $.01; SN, Up $.0375; WN, up $.03; KWN, up $.02

·       MACRO—Dysfunctional White House weighs on global equity markets; stock futures roil, U.S. dollar drops to a 6-month low  ASIA—Lower:  Nikkei, -0.53%; Shanghai, -0.26%; Hang Seng, -0.17%.  EUROPE—Weaker:  DAX, -0.42%; FTSE, -0.03%; CAC, -0.50%. Wall Street-Futures are sharply lower:  DOW, -100; S&P, -11.75; NAS, -22.00. EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.103 @ 97.700; June Gold, +10.1 @ $1,246; June Crude, +$0.08 @ $48.74 

·       T-storm Weather: Two systems produce multiple thunderstorms/heavy rain of 1.75"-3.75" across much of the central/southern Plains and western third to half of the Corn Belt through Sat.  Areas to the east also turn wetter from a few thunderstorms Thu.-Fri., but more-so Sat-Sun. when the second system passes and produces 1.00"-2.00".  Temps plummet as the second system assembles; turning the northwest half of the central U.S. cool Wed.-Fri., while the southeast half remains very mild through Sat.

·       Corn: CN up $.01 @ $3.6875;  CZ up $.01 @ $3.8650.  The funds were even yesterday

·       SB: SN up $.0375 @ $9.80; SX up $.0350 @ $9.7125.   Funds: bot 7 SB, 4 SBM, sold 1 SBO. Board Crush: $.84, -1; LY; $.91

·       Wheat: WN up $.03 @ $4.2725; WU up $.03 @ $4.4125.   The funds bought 1 K

CORN/SORGHUM

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. corn planting progress increases approx. 15% from May 14-21 to 85%

·       T-storm Weather: All areas turn cooler late in weekend/early next week as a series of waves pass & trigger pockets of showers & thunderstorms May 22-26within a seasonable to cool period; wettest across southeast half of central U.S..

·       Consultant: Argentina corn crop estimate is increased 2.0 MMT to 39.0 MMT based mainly on a late increase in corn acreage as well as anticipated very good corn yields from the northern production areas

·       Ethanol margins: $0.13 per gallon—down vs. $0.17 last week and below $0.36 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT   

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·       ATI Research: The 5-year avg. for U.S. soybean planting progress increases approx. 20% from May 14-21 to 52%

·       Consultant: Argentina soybean crop est. is increased 1.5 MMT this week to 56.5 MMT.  The increase was based on excellent yields from northern Argentina where new records are expected.  Harvest is approx. 67% complete.

·       T-storm Weather: Argentina stays dry until Thu.-Fri. when 0.50”-1.50” occurs; highest coverage/amounts in south

·       ATI Research: 5-year avg. for U.S. spring wheat planting progress increases approx. 11% from May 14-21 to 84%

·       KCBT July 2017 wheat futures on Tue. closed at $4.24 ½; one year ago, KCBT July 2016 wheat settled at $4.57 ¾

ENERGY

·       Mixed: CLM17, +0.08 @ $48.74; EBN, +0.10 @ $51.75;EBN-QCLN, +0.09; RBM,-.0003; NGM, -$0.006; HOM, +.0048

·       EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -2.2 (+0.9); Gasoline, -0.9 (-1.8); Distillates, -1.2 (+1.8)

·       A weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago down 3 5/8; New York off 2; Gulf fell 3 ½; Tampa and Dallas declined 1 ½; and LA was 2 lower at $1.61 ½ per gallon

·       Ethanol RINs were higher on Tuesday: 2016’s firmed 2 ¼ to 50-53; and 2017’s added 2 1/8 to 50-53 

·       The June RBOB/June ethanol spread widened further, up $.0339 to +$.12230/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                    &nb​sp;

·       Choice boxed beef values were up 48-cents Tue. to $249.88 , are $7.72 higher v. last week & highest since July 2, 2015

·       Since April 7, choice boxed beef values have increased $42.66 (20.6%)

·       USDA mandatory pork carcass gained $1.61 on Tuesdayto $84.67, and is up $4.35 compared to a week ago

·       CME Lean Hog Index was $1.07 higher on Tue. at $73.01.  June futures firmed $1.475 and are $5.715 above the index     

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 

 



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