HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Firmer: CK, up $.02; SK, up $.0650; WK, Up $.0550; KWK, up $.0625
· MACRO—China says it has no desire for a trade war with the U.S. vows stable forex rate; fed rate decision this afternoon. ASIA—Slightly lower. Nikkei, -0.16%; Shanghai, +0.08%; Hang Seng, -.15%. EUROPE—Mostly higher: FTSE, +0.22%; DAX, +0.03%; CAC,-0.04%. Wall STREET-Futures, higher: DOW, +30; S&P, +4.50; NAS, +10.00. EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, -0.099 @ 101.31; Gold, -$1.00 @ $1,201.40; and April Crude, +$0.83 @ $48.55. Del’y: SBM, 40; SBO, 187; C, 0; SB, 55; SRW, 43; HRW, 0; ETOH, 0
· Weather: Episodes of scattered showers and thunderstorms begin on Thursday and continue through Sunday for northern areas of Brazil. Temps above near to above normal through Friday and are variable Saturday-Sunday. Increased rain also impacts southern areas of Brazil Thursday. Temps are variable. Scattered light showers with locally heavier amounts impact affect key growing areas of Argentina today. Dry weather returns forThursday-Sunday. Temps are variable
· Corn: CK up $.02 @ $3.6425; CN up $.02 @ $3.7175. The funds sold 2 K on Tuesday
· SB: SK up $.0650 @ $10.0575; SN up $.0625 @ $10.1525. Funds: sold 6 SB, 4 SBM, bot 2 SBO. Board Crush: 0.76, +1; LY; $.58
· Wheat: WK, up $.0550 @ $4.36; WH, up $.05 @ $4.5075. The funds were even in yesterday’s trade
CORN/SORGHUM
· The deadline for sign-up for 2017 crop insurance coverage for corn and sorghum is today (March 15)
· Consultant: Brazil corn crop production estimate is unchanged at 86.0 MMT. A conservative stance is being maintained until a clearer picture of weather is seen during April and May for the safrinha (double crop) corn
· Trade ideas surfacing that Argentina corn crop may eventually reach 40.0 MMT vs. current USDA estimate of 37.5
· NWS on Thursday to release U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, detailing drought tendency for mid-March through June
· Ethanol margins: $0.16 per gallon—up from $0.13 last week but below $0.27 in 2016. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· The deadline for sign-up for 2017 crop insurance coverage for soybeans and spring wheat is today (March 15)
· ATI Research: Brazil/Argentina soybeans could displace 210 mbu of U.S. soybean exports in Sept-Nov of 2017 vs. 2016
· Consultant: 2016/17 Brazil soybean est. raised 1.0 MMT to 107.0 MMT. A record yield is possible in Rio Grande do Sul
· NOPA crush report at 11:00 CDT. Avg. trade est. for February soybean crush, 148.3 mbu; soyoil stocks, 1.748 bil lbs
· Weather: Indications of above-normal rain in last week of March for U.S. HRW wheat across Central, Southern Plains
· Chicago July 2017 wheat futures on Tue. closed at $4.12; one year ago, Chicago July 2016 wheat settled at $4.84 ½
ENERGY
· Higher: CLJ17, +$0.83 @ $48.55; EBK, +$0.72; EBK-CLK, 0.080, $2.49; RBJ, +$.0159;NGJ, +$0.009; HOJ, +$.0191
· EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, +3.0 (-0.5); Gasoline, -2.0 (-3.9); Distillates, -1.1 (-4.1)
· A weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago off 7/8; New York down ¾; Gulf and Dallas eased 1; Tampa declined ½; and LA was ¾ lower at $1.63 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs fell on Tue.: 2015’s eased 3/8 to 34 ½-36 ½; 2016’s off ¼ at 35 ½-37 ½; & 2017’s declined ½ to 35 ½-37 ½
· The April RBOB/Apr ethanol spread gained $.0168 yesterday to close at +$0.06450/gallon, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values were 41-cents lower on Tuesday at $220.14, but are still $8.14 higher vs. a week ago
· Weakness in choice boxed beef on Tuesday was only the second day-to-day decline over the past 19 trading days
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 60-cents higher on Tuesday at $82.45, and is up 97-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index fell $0.20 on Wed. to $71.94. April futures gained $0.60 but are still $1.115 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather