HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Firmer: CH, up $.0150; SH, up $.0275; WH, up $.0150; KWH, up $.0125
· MACRO—Markets look to trade mixed today after reaching new highs yesterday. Fed minutes are not expected to bring any surprises/more earnings on tap. ASIA—Mixed: Nikkei, -0.01%; Shanghai, +0.23%; Hang Seng, +0.99%; EUROPE—Higher: FTSE, +0.10%; DAX, +0.20%; CAC, +0.03%. Wall STREET-Pre markets are lower: DOW futures, -2; S&P, -2.25; NASDAQ, -2.50. EXTERNALS: $ Index, +0.255 @ 101.610; Gold, -$0.90 @ $1,237; and April Crude, -$0.20 @ $54.13
· T-storm Weather: Thunderstorms occasionally form when waves of energy flow into a very warm and hot air mass across Argentina, resulting in near- and above-normal rain of 1.00" to 2.00" through 7 to 10 days. To the north, scattered thunderstorms continue in Mato Grosso, Brazil into the weekend. Thereafter, thunderstorms occur with higher frequency in central & northern areas as a cool front approaches and then dissipates, producing above-normal rain over the next two weeks.
· Corn: CH up $.0150 @ $3.7075; CK up $.0125 @ $3.7775. The funds started the week buying 4 K
· SB: SH up $.0275 @ $10.29; SK up $.0225 @ $10.3950. Funds: sold 4 SB; 3 SBM; 4 SBO. Crush: $.75, -$.01; LY: $.48
· Wheat: up $.0150 @ $4.3750; WK up $.0225 @ $4.52. Fund selling continued with 5 Kon Monday
CORN/SORGHUM
·   ATI Research: The USDA’s U.S. corn export forecast of 2.225 bbu appears too low based on several trends including a brisk year-to-date level of exports and an all-time seasonal high in unshipped export sales. ATI est. is 2.320 bbu
· Consultant: The Argentina corn production estimate was left unchanged this week at 36.0 MMT, but could move slightly higher if the main growing areas can avoid additional flooding in the coming weeks
· T-storm Weather: Most notable result of Brazilian weather is that northern areas turn wetter with time with another 3.00”-6.00” of rain over the next two weeks in Mato Grosso. Could slow planting of safrinha (double crop) corn
· ATI Research: U.S. corn ending stocks for 2016/17 crop year are estimated at 2.261 bbu vs. 1.737 bbu last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are forecast at 40.5 mbu per week
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean ending stocks for 2016/17 crop year are estimated at 389 mbu vs. 197 mbu last year
· Consultant: Argentina soybean production estimate is unchanged at 54.0 MMT. If the weather continues to be beneficial and additional flooding is avoided, the estimate will move higher
· ATI Research: U.S. SRW wheat ending stocks for 2016/17 crop year are estimated at 220 mbu vs. 157 mbu last year
· T-storm Weather: U.S. HRW wheat will fall below freezing many times through at least early March (and likely longer)
ENERGY
· Lower: CLJ17, -$0.20 @ $54.13; EBJ, -$0.23; EBJ-CLJ, $2.30, -$0.03; RBH, +$.0039;NGH, -$0.025; HOH, -$.0087
· A mixed trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday compared to Friday: Chicago up 3/8; New York and Tampa down 1; Dallas steady; while LA was a penny higher at $1.70 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs up Tue.: 2015’s gained 2 ½ to 46 ½-47 ½; 2016’s firmed 2 ½ to 46 ¾-47 ¾; & 2017’s added 2 ½ to 47-48
· The Mar RBOB/Mar ethanol spread closed at -$0.00400/gallon, premium ETOH and off $.0006 from Friday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   Choice boxed beef values gained 90-cents on Tuesday to $191.81 and are $3.45 higher vs. a week ago
· February live cattle futures on Tuesday closed at $119.10, the highest settlement price for the contract since Jan. 25
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 53-cents on Tuesday to $83.86 and is $1.22 lower compared to last week
· CME Lean Hog Index firmed $0.17 on Tue. to $77.24. April futures declined $0.425 and are $6.89 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather