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MARKET TREND Firm CK, up 1, SK, up 6, WK, unchanged

April 12, 2017 07:12 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·        MARKET TREND—Firm: CK, up $.0075; SK, up $.06; WK, up $.0025; KWK, up $.0025

·        MACRO—“Cautious” is this morning’s buzzword as Tillerson meets with Russian peer Lavrov; hot topics: Ukraine, Syria & counterterrorism. ASIA—Mostly lower:   Nikkei, -0.46%; Shanghai, -0.46%; Hang Seng, +0.93%.  EUROPE—Higher:  DAX, +0.13%; FTSE, +0.11%; CAC, +0.15%.   Wall STREET-Futures are slightly weaker: DOW, -4; S&P, -1.50; NAS, -2.75.  EXTERNALS: Sep $ Index, +0.018 @ 100.470 ; April Gold, +$1.50 @ $1,273; May Crude, +$0.28 @ $53.68 

·        T-storm Weather: Storm systems parade through the central U.S. every few days over the next two weeks or longer. Widespread coverage of above-normal rain occurs, especially from rainfall events starting early next week.  That said, rainfall will be limited in / near the northern Plains, which is where planting has the best opportunity to advance.  In South America, a sharply wetter period begins early next week across southern Brazil and Paraguay, most notably including second-crop corn in / near Parana

·        Corn: CK up $.0075 @ $3.6725; CN up $.0075 @ $3.7450.  Report day found the funds buying 2 K    

·        SB: up $.06 @ $9.4525; SN Up $.0550 @ $9.5625.  Funds: Sold 1 SB, 1 SBM, & 5 SBO.  Board Crush: $.83, 0; LY; $.61

·        Wheat: WK up $.00025 @ $4.3350; WN up $.0025 @ $4.4775.  The fundswere again buyers of 3 K on Tuesday  

CORN/SORGHUM

·        ATI Research: WASDE raised S American corn prod more than expected.  Brazil, +2.0 MMT to 93.5, +40% v. last year.  Argentina, +1.0 MMT to 38.5, +33% v. 15/16.  Total Brazil/Argentina exports +1.5 MMT v. March., +62% v. last year

·        Consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate is increased 2.0 MMT to 90.0 MMT.  The safrinha (double crop) corn in Mato Grosso is currently rated in good condition even though the weather is trending drier in the state

·        T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure generally suppresses rain over the next week across Center-West and Southeast Brazil.  Allsafrinha (double crop) corn is likely to turn wetter later next week and weekend

·        Ethanol margins: $0.28 per gallon—unchanged from last week but below $0.37 in 2016.  EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·        ATI Research: USDA raises Brazil soybean crop 3.0 MMT v. March to a record 111.0 MMT.  World ending soybean stocks were increased 4.6 MMT compared to last month and are projected to be 13% higher than last year

·        Consultant: Brazil soybean crop estimate is unchanged at 109.0 MMT but could increase.  Nationwide harvest is 82% 

·        T-storm Weather: In Argentina, dry and cool weather dominate central & southern soybean areas over the next week

·        ATI Research: USDA raises world wheat ending stocks 2.3 MMT v. March, well above avg. trade est. of 0.7 MMT rise 

·        T-storm Weather: Outside of light rain Fri.-Sat., N Plains stay mostly dry over the next week for spring wheat planting

ENERGY

·        Firmer: CLK17, +0.28 @ $53.68; EBM, +$0.37 @ $56.60; EBM-QCLM, +.11; RBK,+$.0075; NGK, +$0.017; HOK, +$.0138

·        EIA Report Estimates (API): crude oil, -0.1 (-1.3); Gasoline, -1.7 (-3.7); Distillates, -1.0 (-1.6)

·        Cash ethanol markets were generally steady on Tuesday: Chicago, New York and Dallas were unchanged; Gulf eased ¼; Tampa added ½; but LA was 4 ½ higher at $1.82 per gallon

·        Ethanol RINs were higher on Tuesday: 2016’s gained ¾ to 54 ¼-55 ¼; and 2017’s increased ½ to 54 ½-55 5/8

·        The May RBOB/May ethanol spread was little changed, up $.0006 to +$.10770/gallon, premium RBOB

  LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                          &​nbsp;         

·       &​nbsp;Choice boxed beef values increased $1.91 on Tuesday to $209.37, but are still $2.12 lower compared to a week ago

·        ATI Research: USDA WASDE increases 2017 U.S. beef production forecast 250 mil lbs to 26.6 billion—up 5.1% v. 2016

·        USDA mandatory pork carcass declined $1.23 on Tuesday to $74.57, and is 50-cents lower vs. last week

·        ATI Research: USDA WASDE reduced 2017 U.S. pork production forecast 10 mil lbs to 26.1 bil—still up 4.6% v. 2016

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather

 



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