HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND—Definitely Lower: CU: down $.0450; SQ: down $.185; WU: down $.1225; KWU: down $.1225
· MACRO: Yellen says Fed will be cautious in tightening monetary policy, equity markets give a sigh of relief. ASIA—Higher: Nikkei, +0.01%; Shanghai, +0.67%; Hang Seng,+1.16%. EUROPE: Firmer—DAX, +0.19%; FTSE, +0.09%; CAC,+0.57%. WALL STREET—Futures are firmer—DOW, +21; S&P, +4.25 NAS, +20. EXTERNALS: $ Index: +.003 @ 95.515;Aug Gold: +$1.50 @ $1,222; Sep crude: -$.13 @ $45.53/bl. Del’ys: SBM, 52; SBO, 43; RR, 50; C, 284; ETOH, 0; HRW, 11; SB, 88; SRW, 69
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms shift southward across the southern third of the Central U.S. today, & then the Delta on Friday. Crops in the northern Plains stay dry, including spring wheat. Drying that begins/continues today-Friday lasts at least one week in most areas. Temperatures will be seasonable in the Corn Belt through the weekend due to the passing cool front that suppresses heat in most areas. Heat returns to the Plains Sat.-Sun., & then overspreads the Corn Belt early next week
· CU, down $.0450 @ $3.81; CZ, down $.0425 @ $3.9450. Heavy fund selling post report—20 K
· SQ, dn $.18 @ $10.0275; SX, dn $.1950 @ $10.1450. Fund activity: Sold 6 SB, 4 SBM, 3 SBO. Board Crush: $.87, -1; LY, $.69
· WU, down $.1225 @ @$5.2475; WZ down $.1225 @ $5.4825. Report day found the funds selling 7 K
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT. Trade expects 12-20 mbu for 16/17 corn
· ATI Research: Negative USDA Supply/Demand report Wed. with the USDA holding to its 170.7 yield est. As a result, crop size was 180 mbu above avg. trade guess & 17/18 carryout of 2.325 bbu was 194 mbu higher than the trade
· T-storm Weather: Strong thunderstorms form starting around July 19, most likely from the eastern Dakotas through MN and WI. Some thunderstorms form further to south with time, most likely result in 0.40”-0.80” over July 19-24
· Ethanol grind: Total of 1,007,000 barrels/day for week end July 7—dn 7 thou v. prior week but up 0.3% v. last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 7-15 mbu for 16/17 soybeans; soymeal, 25-150 K MT; soyoil, 5-20 K MT
· ATI Research: Old-crop soybean carryout 24 mbu below the avg. trade guess at 410 mbu, while new-crop stocks of 460 mbu were 23 mil below the trade. China soybean import forecast: 16/17 revised up 2.0 MMT, 17/18 +1.0 MMT
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall through today is important for U.S. soybeans as one week of drying follows
· Export Sales report. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for 17/18 all wheat
· ATI Research: Initial USDA survey-based est. of U.S. HRS wheat production is 385 mbu. Ongoing hot, dry weather for most areas, however, suggests the potential for a downward revision in future USDA Crop Production reports
ENERGY
· Weaker: CLU17, -$0.13 @ $45.53; EBU, -$0.30 @ $47.44;EBU-QCLU, -.15; RBU, -.0114; NGU, +.001; HOU, -.0066
· A mostly weaker trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago off ½; New York and Tampa down 1; Gulf and Dallas eased ¾; but LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.76 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs were firmer on Wednesday: 2016’s and 2017’s gained 1 ¾ to 71 ½-74 ½
· The Aug RBOB/Aug ethanol inverse gave up $.0135 yesterday, settling at -$.02920/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values fell $2.55 on Wednesday to $212.68, and are $9.89 lower compared to last week
· ATI Research: USDA increased its 2017 beef production estimate by 270 mil lbs to 26.562 bil lbs—up 5.0% from 2016
· USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout was 8-cents higheron Wed. at $104.91—the highest price since Oct. 17, 2014
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.16 higher on Wed. at $92.75. July futures up $0.425 but are still $0.175 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN, T-storm Weather