HIGHLIGHTS
· MARKET TREND: CZ, Up $.0150; SF, Up $.0450; WH, Down $.01; KWH, Up $.0250
· Equity markets lack direction this morning. Shanghai inched .09% higher obvernight but the Hang Seng lost .46% and the Nikkei fell .98%. Europe finds the FTSE .14% higher while the DAX is .09% lower and the CAC 40, down .29% at mid-day. Traders note uneasiness over the ideas of a prolonged slump in commodity and, possibly equity values. Wall Street looks mixed—DOW futures are 33 higher; the NAS is .75 lower and the S&P, up 1.25. As for the outside markets, Jan WTI is up $.57; gold is $1.70 higher at $1,077.20 and the $ Index is about a 1/3rdof a point lower at 98.16
· T-storm Weather: Mainly dry and increasingly hot weather dominate much of northern Brazil over the next week (especially from Mato Grosso through Bahia) as maximums in the mid-90s to low-100s become commonplace. A chance for rain follows Dec. 16-18 when a cool front sweeps northward, but we are keeping the chance for widespread and heavy rain low because it is unclear how the high and cool fronts will interact. Widespread rainfall of 2.75" to 3.50" is normal for the next 10 days
· CZ, Up $.0150 @ $3.7150; CH, Up $.0150 @ $3.75. The funds bought 3 K yesterday
· SF, Up $.0450 @ $8.8125; SH, Up $.0425 @ $8.84. Funds: sold 3 K SB; 2 K SBM; bot 2 K SBO. Del’y: 182 SBO
· WZ, Down $.01 @ $4.6975; WH, Up $.03 @ $4.8450. Fund selling totaled 1 K Tuesday. Dely’y: 83 SRW, 6 HRW
CORN/SORGHUM        
· USDA WASDE 11:00 a.m. CST: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carry-out, 15/16, 1.768 bbu (range 1.640-1.810), 1.760 in Nov.
· ATI Research: U.S. corn exports for the up-coming 4-week period forecast at 20-25 mbu per week vs. 24.5 last year
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain occurs over the next 10 days for southern Brazil, continuing one of the wettest early-November to mid-December periods for corn of recent decades
· Consultant: Full-season corn acreage lower in southern Brazil, but crop performing quite well due to all the moisture
· Ethanol margins: $0.18 per gallon—down from $0.23 last week and below $0.89 last year. EIA report at 9:30 a.m. CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA WASDE: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carry-out, 15/16, 0.462 bbu (range 0.445-0.478) and 0.465 in Nov
· ATI Research: U.S. soymeal exports for the up-coming 4-weeks estimated at 200-220 K MT per week v. 261 K last year
· Consultant: Approximately 25-30% of soybean acreage in northern Brazil is experiencing drier-than-normal conditions, while approximately 40% of soybean acreage in southern Brazil has some level of wetness
· USDA WASDE: Avg. trade est U.S. wheat carry-out, 15/16, 0.918 (range 0.910-0.936) and 0.911 in Nov.
· ATI Research: U.S. all wheat exports are forecast to continue to range from 10-15 mbu per week through December
ENERGY
· Firmer: CLF16, +$0.57, $38.08; EBF, +$0.50; EBF-CLF, $2.71, -$.04; RBF, +$.0166; NGF, +$.035; HOF, -$.0009
· EIA estimates: crude, +0.5 (API: -1.9); Gasoline, +1.4 (+2.7); Distillates, +1.3 (+5.6)
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly lower on Tuesday: Chicago and New York off ¾; Gulf down 2 ½; Dallas eased 1; Tampa declined 2; but LA was 1 higher at $1.56 ½ per gallon
· Ethanol RINs weaker: 2014’s slipped 1 ½ to 69 -74; 2015’s off 2 at 68-73; and 2016’s off 2 at 68-73
· The Jan RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse added nearly a ½, settling at -$.2624 per gallon on Tuesday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ; ;
· Choice boxed beef were $1.27 higher on Tuesday and are up 33-cents compared to a week ago
· December 2015 live cattle futures traded to $120.55 on Tuesday--the lowest price for a nearby contract since Oct. 2
· On Tuesday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout declined $1.59 and is 21-cents lower vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index was $0.10 higher at $56.32. December futures $0.15 lower and are $0.995 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather