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MARKET TREND CZ, Down 2, SF, Up 1, WH, Up 4, KWH, Up 3

December 7, 2015 08:38 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         MARKET TREND:  CZ, Down $.0225; SF, Up $.0125;  WH, Up $.0400;  KWH, Up $.0325

·         Friday’s U.S. jobs report has seemingly propelled most overseas markets higher.  In Asia, the Nikkei gained .99%; Shanghai was up .34% with the Hang Seng the lone exception, off -.15%.  Europe is positive half-way through the trading day:  FTSE, +.41%; CAC 40, +1.53% and the DAX, +1.85%.  U.S. pre-market indicators all look positive:  DOW futures, +19; the NAS, +10.50 and the S&P500, +3.25.  Outside markets find the $ Index up .407 at 98.75; gold is $2.70 weaker at $1,081.30 and Jan WTI is below $40 at $39.24 per barrel this morning

·         T-storm Weather: Strong thunderstorms over the weekend missed driest and wettest areas of Brazil.  A few thunderstorms occurred in the north on Sunday, but coverage was considerably lower than expected.  Scattered thunderstorms occur within northern soybean areas of Brazil through Tuesday, but amounts are reduced to 0.50”-1.50” in Mato Grosso and kept at 1.00”-2.00” in Goias.  Around one week with only isolated thunderstorms and some heat beginsWednesday

·         CZ, Down $.0225h @ $3.74;  CH, Down $.01 @ $3.8050.  The funds bought 6K Friday.  

·         SF, Up$.0125 @ $9.0725; SH, Up $.0125 @ $9.0925.  The funds bot 5K SB; sold 1K SBM, bought 5 SBO.

·         WZ, NA; WH, Up $.0425 @ $4.8675.  The funds bought 3K to end the week

 

CORN/SORGHUM                                  ​                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;     

·         USDA WASDE on Dec. 9: Avg. trade est U.S. corn carryout--15/16, 1.768 bbu (range 1.640-1.810) and 1.760 in Nov.

·         December 2016 corn futures closed at $4.03 ¼ Fri.; one year ago, the December 2015 contract settled at $3.81 ½

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 39.4 needed; 11.8 last week; Sorghum, 5.5 needed; 8.4 last week

·         T-storm Weather: In Argentina, a few thunderstorms occur from time to time over the next week, but most areas receive less than 0.50”.  Limited rainfall aids corn planting, but rain will eventually be needed

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 13,980 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         USDA WASDE on Dec. 9: Avg. trade est U.S. soybean carryout--15/16, 0.462 bbu (0.445-0.478), 0.465 in Nov.

·         Crop consultant: Brazilian soybean crop est. may be lowered 0.5-1.0 MMT due to less-than-ideal conditions in north

·         T-storm Weather: Much of Mato Grosso, Brazil is forecast to be unusually dry for first half of December; e.g. around 5.00” is normal of the first half of the month, but many soybean areas may have received less to much-less than 2.00”

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 25.2 needed; 67.4 last week

·         USDA WASDE on Dec. 9: Avg. trade est U.S. wheat carryout--15/16, 0.918 (range of 0.910-0.936) and 0.911 in Nov.

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 16.3 needed; 10.1 last week

ENERGY

·         Weaker:  CLF16, -$0.72 $39.24; EBF, -$0.29; EBF-CLF, $3.32, +$.28; RBF, -$.0119; NGF, -$.062; HOF, -$.0123

·         A mixed trend persisted in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago, Dallas and Tampa were steady; New York eased ½; Gulf added ½; and LA was unchanged at $1.58 ½ per gallon

·         Ethanol RINs lower: 2014’s down 4 ½ to 71 ½ -74; 2015’s eased 5 ¼ to 71-72 ½; and 2016’s declined 6 to 70 ½-72 ½

·         The Jan RBOB/Jan Ethanol inverse increased  $.0301 per gallon on Friday to -$.2388     

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                  &nbs​p;                        ​;

·     &nbs​p;   Choice boxed beef declined $1.89 on Friday and are $1.80 lower compared to a week ago

·         U.S. cattle slaughter for week end Dec. 5 down 0.7% v. last year, but beef production up 2.0% due to higher weights

·         On Friday, USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout increased 49-cents and is $1.79 higher vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index was $0.17 higher at $56.30.  December futures down $1.30 but are $0.75 above the index

             Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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