HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 6-7; Soybeans, 16-17 Higher; Wheat, 6-7 Higher. Europe: Wheat, +11 ¼; Corn,+ 4 ¾
·   A 2.7% September retail sales gain in Japan comes on the heels of a 1.9% rise in August, helping to lift some Asian stocks. Shanghai, +2.07%; the Hang Seng, +1.63%; Nikkei, -.38%. Europe seems to be bouncing back from Monday’s losses after bank regulators stated some institutions need to raise more capital: DAX, +1.31%; FTSE, +.25%; CAC 40, +.15%. U.S. futures look positive as the markets await Wednesday’s Fed report/interest rate ideas: Dow, +67; S&P500, +9.50; NAS, +22. Gold, down $1.90; $ Index, +.129 at 85.875 and energy futures are modestly firmer
· Weather: On the heels of a stretch of near ideal harvest conditions, a significant transition in Midwest U.S. weather is ready to take place today through the remainder of the week. Mostly dry conditions are forecast for the western Corn Belt today but scattered light to locally moderate rain could impact points east of the Mississippi River. While potentially fairly widespread, extremely heavy rainfall amounts do not appear likely with 0.25” looking to be on the high end. Temperatures rapidly cool from much-above normal levels to normal to below-normal as the week progresses ; mostly dry conditions are likely after rain today
· Dec Corn Up $.0625 at $3.6925; March Up $.0650 at $3.8325. Fund buying on Monday totaled 8 K
· Nov SB Up $.1725 at $10.2325; Jan Up $.175 at $10.2975. Funds: bought 8 K SB; 6K SBM and sold 2 K SBO yesterday
· Dec Down $.0625 at $5.29; March Up $.0625 at $5.4275 The funds open the week buying 5 K
CORN/SORGHUM     ;
· ATI Research: U.S. corn crop size reduced 86mbu from last week to 14.594Bbu, yield lowered 1.0 bpa at 175.7
· ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet; 14/15 usage dn 29mbu from last week, carryout dn 57mbu to 2.271Bbu
· December 2014 corn futures closed at $3.63 Monday, the highest closing price for the contract since Sept. 2
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn mature at 96% vs. the 5-year avg. of 97%; corn harvest at 46% vs. avg. of 65%
· Private consultant: 2014/15 corn crop estimate for Brazil reduced 1.0 MMT; also trims Argentina output by 1.0 MMT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean crop unch at 3.936Bbu; yield steady 47.2 bpa; Crop Progress,harvest 70% v. 76% avg.
· ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged from last week at 418mbu
· November 2014 soybean futures closed at $10.06 Monday, the highest closing price for the contract since Sept. 8
· Private consultant: 2014/15 soybean crop estimate for Brazil reduced 1.0 MMT due to slow pace of planting
· USDA Crop Progress: Winter wheat planted, 84%--equal to 5-year avg.; but Midwest SRW states still 8-34% below avg.
· ATI Research: HRS wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 252mbu. 15/16 carryout, 267mbu
ENERGY
· Futures are slightly firmer; QCLZ14,+$0.02 at $81.02; QRBZ,+$0.002; QNGZ, +$.013; andQHOZ,-$.0031
· A mostly firmer trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Monday: Chicago up 3 ½; Gulf jumped 12; Tampa and Dallas gained 1; New York soared 13; but LA was 3 ½ lower at $2.01 ½ per gallon
· Unch to higher RINs: 2013’s up ¼ at 45 ¼-45 ¾; 2014’s up ¼ at 45 ½-46; and 2015’s steady at 45 ¼-45 ¾
· The November RBOB/Ethanol spread tugged in 8 ½ cents to $.4102/gallon on immediate supply concerns, higher corn
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ; ;
· Choice boxed beef values were $1.79 higher Monday at $249.20 but are 64-cents lower compared to one week ago
· The 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average steer price jumped $5.03 last week to a record high of $168.79
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.23 on Monday but is still down $6.94 vs. the previous week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $1.95 to $98.40. December futures down $1.20 to $89.05 & are $9.35 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather