HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 4-5, led by CN; Soybeans, 7-8+ higher, SN; Wheat, 4 Higher
· Unrest in Iraq is casting doubts on the sustainability of global economic growth as oil prices work higher. Iraq currently produces about 3.6 mbpd and while the fighting isn’t affecting production/exports, the markets are nervous. However, Asia managed to end the week on a positive note as Chinese industrial output grew 8.8% and retail sales were above expectations. The Hang Seng, Shanghai and Nikkei all closed higher. European markets are nearly 1% lower and U.S. futures are weaker—S&P, -1.75; Dow, -18 and NAS, -2. Energy futures are higher; gold is up a modest $.70 and the $ Index is off .055 at 80.625
· T-Storm Weather: The overall pattern remains conducive to near- and above-average rainfall over the next week in central and northern growing areas; 1.50” – 3.00” amounts most common. Southern areas also receive rain, but chances generally diminish, eventually improving conditions for winter wheat harvesting A reprieve in the stormy pattern is possible later next week (beginning Wednesday, June 18), but a sharp change toward sustained dryness (or heat) remains unlikely simply because wet soil moisture will lead to high evaporation rates, ultimately making it easier-than-usual for thunderstorms to return
· July Corn Up $.05 at $4.49; September Up $.04 at $4.44. Fund buying totaled 3 K on Thursday
· July Soybeans Up $.0850 at $14.2375; August Up $.0825 at $13.6825. The funds sold 12 K SB; 6 K SBM and bought 2 K SBO
· July Wheat Up $.0425 at $5.8950; September Up $.04 at $6.01. The funds were sellers of 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2014 corn futures traded $4.38 ¾ on Thurs.--lowest price since Jan. 10—but closed $0.02 higher at $4.43 ¾
· ATI Research: U.S. new-crop corn export sales demand not exactly robust--avg. of 2.8mbu per week the past month. Reserved buying appears to reflect the belief that good early growing conditions will result in even lower prices
· USDA completes surveying producers for June 30 Acreage report this weekend. The report will update 2014 plantings
· T-storm Weather: Main risk with above-average rainfall short-term is that some U.S. corn areas turn excessively wet
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· July 2014 soybean futures traded down to $14.10 on Thursday, which is the lowest price since March 31
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean planting progress for week end June 15 was 83% in 2013 and the 5-year average is 90%
· T-storm Weather: Very few unseasonably-dry or unseasonably-wet U.S. soybean growing areas over the last 30 days
· Chicago July 2014 wheat futures traded down to $5.84 ¾ on Thursday, which is the lowest price sinceFebruary 10
· ATI Research: U.S. wheat export sales up moderately with lower price; unshipped sales 228mbu vs. 5-year avg. of 193
· T-storm Weather: Drying needed for HRW wheat harvest in south, where below-avg. rain is forecast through June 17
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLN14, +$.56 at $107.09; QRBN, +$0.0021; QNGN, +$.008; and QHON, +$.0123
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed Thursday: Chicago up 3; Gulf gained 4 ½; Dallas eased 4; New York was off ½; Tampa slid a dime; and LA was 3 lower at $2.45 per gallon
· RINs were lower: 2012’s down ¾ to 44-47; 2013’s also off ¾ to 45 ½-47; and 2014’s slipped ½ to 44 ½-46
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread gained nearly 5 ½ cents, settling at $.9527 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values fell 93-cents yesterday and have declined $1.62 over the last two days
· Cash cattle traded yesterday at mostly $148, up $3 from last week
· After falling $1.22 on Wednesday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value jumped $2.80 yesterday
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.23 to $113.69. June futures unchanged at $115.975 and are $2.285 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather