HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, Up 4-5; Soybeans, 10 to 12 Higher; Wheat, 10-12 Higher   

·         Wednesday’s unexpected decision by the U.S. Federal Reserve to keep its monetary stimulus unchanged sent stocks to new all-time highs.  Most Fed watchers were predicting that the central bank would being the process of unwinding its stimulus with a  $10 billion reduction being the consensus.  Instead, no change was indicated and Chairman Bernanke expressed worries over the state of the U.S. economic recovery and the still high levels of unemployment.  In addition to sending stocks to new highs, the Fed’s decision also supported oil and gold prices. In contrast, the dollar and U.S. government bond yields weakened.  This morning, stocks are seeing followthough gains with the Dow futures up 38, S&P up 6.5 and Nasdaq 11 higher.  Gold is $60 firmer, oil is up $0.67 and the dollar is 0.147 weaker at 80.22.

·         T-storm Weather forecast: Temps fluctuate over the next few days as warmth shifts northeastward, but coolness quickly shifts southeastward.  Areas of thunderstorms result with highest coverage and amounts from Thursday afternoon through Friday; 0.50”-1.50” amounts are expected across the Midwest with higher totals possible in the Delta.  A dry and unseasonably warm pattern follows for much of next week.  Thunderstorm chances increase later next week or weekend, but the setup is far from certain.  The main point is that conditions for corn/soybean harvesting and wheat planting improve as next week progresses

·         Dec Corn Up $.0475 at $4.61; Mar Corn Up $.05 at $4.7375

·         Nov Soybeans Up $.1125 at $13.59; Jan SB Up $.105 at $13.6075

·         Dec Wheat, Up $.1075 at $6.5725; Mar Wheat Up $.1075 at $6.6825

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Most early corn yields continue to run better-than-expected

·         NWS to release update temperature & precipitation forecasts for the month of October day at 7:30 AM CDT.

·         Corn Export Sales report released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 18-26mbu

·         ATI Research: China remains the key wild card to monitor regarding U.S. corn export prospects for Sept-Nov 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Many observers expressing concern about soybean yield prospects although early harvest results are mixed

·         Soybean Export Sales: Trade expecting 24-28mbu

·         SBM export sales est 20-80 for 12/13 (need: -12.5), 80-150 for 13/14; SBO at 5-10 KMT for 12/13, (11.8); 0-5 for 13/14

·         Incentive for Brazilian farmers to boost soybean plantings in Oct-Dec remains high

·         Wheat Export Sales: Trade expecting 18-24 for 13/14 delivery against 13.1/wk needed

·         Market will be watching to see if additional export demand for U.S. wheat surfaces from Brazil and/or China

·         Japan Thursday bought 108,901 metric tons of milling wheat in five grades for bulk shipment, including three cargoes totaling 62,831 tons of U.S. wheat, an official with the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said

ENERGY

·         Energy markets are higher: QCLV13, up $0.47 to $108.54; QRBV, +.0107; QNGV,+$.024 and QHOV, +$.0138

·         Spot ethanol prices were mixed: NY was reported 7 ½ cents higher; the Gulf gained 10 and Chicago prices were up an average of 23 cents.  Dallas was ½ lower and LA was unchanged; Tampa was 1 ½ higher

·         RINs: 2012’s were unch at 49-54 ½ cents; 2013’s were 1 lower at 50-54 ½; 2014’s fell 1, to a 50-551/2 range

·         The Oct RBOB/ethanol spread increased to $.8971

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY               &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;                        ​;                

&​middot;         Choice boxed beef values gained 28-cents yesterday, but are still down 64-cents from a week earlier

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 16-cents yesterday and has increased $2.12 over the last two days

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $2.16 yesterday to $94.25

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 5.1% from LY, chick placements increase 3.0% from LY

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

Brian Basting 
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com 
http://www.advance-trading.com