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Market Trend Corn, Up 3 to 4, Soybeans, Up 5 to 8, Wheat, Up 5-9

March 9, 2015 07:23 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, Up 3-4; Soybeans, Up 5-8; Wheat, Up 5-9

·         Friday’s favorable U.S. unemployment #’s heightened investor concerns that a rate hike might be imminent, pressuring most global equity markets this morning.  In Asia, the Nikkei lost .95%; the Hang Seng eased .17% while Shanghai bucked the trend to close up 1.88% and aided by banking sector gains. Europe has a weaker tone at mid-day:  The DAX is .14% lower; CAC 40, down .44% and the FTST, off .61%.  U.S. futures point to a continuation—DOW futures are down 31; the S&P is off 3 ½ and the NAS, down 6 ½. The outside markets have most energy futures lower; the $ Index is off 1/5 of a point to 97.405 and gold is $7.40 higher in risk-on trade

·         Scattered to widely scattered rain could be seen on Monday-Tuesday in Mato Grosso, Brazil to go along with near to below normal temperatures.  If realized, a cool and wet weather pattern could disrupt soybean harvest and second-crop corn planting in the state.  A drier pattern looks to be in store for Parana and Rio Grande do Sul through midweek with temperatures near to below normal.  Mostly dry weather is projected in Argentina throughWednesday, although some light showers are possible in the far south.  Temperatures are forecast to be above normal through midweek

·         Mar Corn Up $.0350 at $3.8275; May Up $.04 at $3.90.   Dely:  58.  The funds sold 5 K on Friday

·         Mar SB Up $.0775 at $9.87; May Up $.06 at $9.91. Dely: 99 SB, 64 SBO.  Funds sold 3 K SB; 3 K SBM & 5 KSBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.0550 at $4.9125; May Up $.0850 at $4.91.  Dely: 25 HRW, 38 SRW.  Funds were even in Friday’s trade

CORN/SORGHUM             &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        ​;                        ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp; 

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 39.2 needed; 50.4 last week.  Milo—4.3 needed; 8.1 last week

·         USDA WASDE out March 10: Avg. trade guess for U.S. corn ending stocks is 1.831 Bbu vs. 1.827 in Feb.  Avg. guess for Brazil corn production is 74.7 MMT (75.0 in Feb.); avg. guess for Argentina corn production is 23.4 MMT (23.0 in Feb.)

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 1,831 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 9.6 needed; 23.3 last week

·         USDA WASDE out March 10: Avg. trade guess for U.S. soybean ending stocks is 377 mbu vs. 385 in Feb.  Avg. guess for Brazil soybean crop is 94.1 MMT (94.5 in Feb.); avg. guess for Argentina soybean crop is 56.9 MMT (56.0 in Feb.)

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 16,699 contracts

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 21.2 needed; 16.5 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions decrease 137 contracts

·         USDA WASDE out March 10: Avg. trade guess for U.S. all wheat ending stocks is 703 mbu vs. 692 in Feb.

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly lower:  QCLJ15, +$0.09 at $49.70; QRBJ, -0.0100; QNGJ, -$.104 @ 2.735; and QHOJ, -$.0108

·         Cash ethanol markets were mostly weaker on Friday: Chicago off 5; Gulf down 4 ¾; New York eased 7; Dallas dropped 3; Tampa declined 1 ½; but LA was up a penny at $1.71 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were lower: 2013’s down ¼ to 70-71 ½; 2014’s eased ¼ to 70 ½-72; and 2015’s were 1 lower at 69-71

·         The April RBOB/April Ethanol spread bounced back out on Friday to $.4219, up $.0466/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                ​                         ​                  <​/wbr>

·         Choice boxed beef values were $0.72 lower on Friday but are up $0.90 compared to last week

·         March feeder cattle futures closed at $209.725 on Friday, the highest settlement price for the contract since Jan. 14

·         The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was up $1.00 lower on Friday but is $0.97 lower vs. a week ago

·         CME Lean Hog Index declined $0.17 at $67.92.  April futures $0.70 lower at $66.125 and is $1.795 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN Ag Weather

 



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