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Market Trend Corn, Up 3 to 4, Soybeans, Up 3 to 4, Wheat, Up 3 to 4

January 15, 2015 07:10 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn,  Up 3-4; Soybeans, Up 3-4; Wheat, Up 3-4

·         Global equity market volatility continues-may be the new “norm”.  Asia closes higher with the Nikkei up 1.9%; the Hang Seng gains a point and Shanghai, up 3.5%.  Oil prices turn weaker, pulls Europe down after a positive start:  FTSE, -.65%; DAX, -.34% and CAC 40, -.83%. Pre-market indicators call for a lower start to the US trading day:  DOW futures, -79; NAS, -23 ½ and the S&P, 11 ¾ lower.  Energy futures are mostly lower; the $ Index is off .35 at 91.995 and gold, $19.10 higher at $1,253.50/oz

·         T-storm Weather: Upper-level high pressure suppresses rainfall and induces heat across Goias and Northeast / Southeast Brazil through early next week.  The setup also allows a parade of systems to trigger thunderstorms in varying areas of Argentina and South Brazil at times over the next five days.  A change at least temporarily follows as a large cool front sweeps northward next week, but it is unclear whether it will be able to dislodge the high to break drying in driest areas of Brazil, and wetness in wettest areas.  Oftentimes, patterns do not break as easily as initially forecasted, which is why this remains a potential concern

·         Mar Corn Up $.04 at $3.85; May Up $.0350 at $3.92.  The funds were again sellers, liquidating 7 K Wednesday

·         Jan SB Up $.0325 at $10.1250; May Up $.0350 at $10.18.    Del’y: SB, 120; SBM, 200; SBO, 82.  Funds bot 1 K each SB, SBM, SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.0350 at $5.4125; May Up $.0350 at $5.4425.  The funds sold another 5 K yesterday

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CORN/SORGHUM           ​;                &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                        &nbs​p;          

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 22 to 30 mbu corn 

·         Ethanol grind: 978,000 barrels per day for week end Jan. 9--up 29 thou vs. last week and 12.7% higher vs. last year

·         T-storm Weather: This were four consecutive days this week for first-crop corn with mean temperatures of at least 80F in Brazil, which is around 5F warmer than usual per day

·         March 2015 corn futures closed at $3.81 on Wednesday—one year ago, March 2014 corn contract settled $4.31 ½

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects soybeans, 26 to 33 mbu; soymeal, 25-150; soyoil, 10-30

·         T-storm Weather: Dry-hot weather continue for driest soybeans in Brazil into early next week, while unneeded to excessive rains recur in parts of Argentina and South Brazil

·         March 2015 soybean futures closed at $10.09 ¼ Wed.—one year ago, March 2014 soybean contract settled at $13.07

·         CBT March 2015 wheat futures closed at $5.37 ¾ on Wed--the lowest settlement price since Nov. 11, 2014

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 9-17 mbu for all wheat

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly lower: QCLG15, -$0.60 at $47.88; QRBG, -$0.0290; QNGG, +$.056; andQHOG, -$.0190

·         Further erosion was noted Wednesday in cash ethanol markets: Chicago down 6 ¾; New York slid 7 ½; Gulf eased 2 ¼; Dallas of 4; Tampa dipped 5 ½; and LA was 7 lower at $1.49 per gallon

·         Weaker trend in RINs: 2013’s off 3 at 65 ½-68; 2014’s down 3 ½ at 65 ½-69; and 2015’s eased 3 ¾ to 65 ½-68

·         The Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol spread went to $.0207 premium to RBOB and a 16.32 cent swing from Tuesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                

​ ·         On Wednesday, choice boxed beef values increased $2.18 and are $11.06  higher vs. a week ago

·         Cash cattle trading was quiet on Wednesday with bids of $164 noted in the South

·         On Wednesday, the USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased 17-cents but is still up $1.35 vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index 15-cents lower at $76.11.  February futures up $0.85 to $76.025 and $0.085 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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