HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 3-4; Soybeans, Up 1-3; Wheat, Up 1-2
· Asia unaffected by record action on Wall Street: Shanghai falls 2.15%; the Hang Seng eased .74% and the Nikkei slipped .06% overnight. Europe is in a similar mind-set: CAC 40 and DAX are both .04-.05% lower with the FTSE off .09%. Pre-Market indicators for Wall Street show DOW futures off 18; the NAS is expected to open 4 lower and the S&P, down 2 ½. Feb auto sales are out today and selected firms will be releasing earnings--Best Buy and Dick’s Sporting Goods. Outside markets: $ Index, up .101 to 95.585; energy futures are mostly higher and gold is off $.30 on the March
· Brazil received significant amounts of rainfall over the weekend impacting in excess of 80% of the crop growing regions. Rainfall is expected over much of the country in the next two weeks. Argentina also received widespread weekend rains. Cordoba and surrounding states received the most precipitation amounts varying from 1.30”-3.15”. Uruguay was mostly dry. Brazil is due for rains over the south the next week, Argentina is mostly dry for the next week. In South Africa only on and off showers are expected in the coming two weeks.
· Mar Corn Up $.0375 at $3.8250; May Up $.0325 at $3.9125. Dely: 1,180. The funds sold 8 K to open the week k
· Mar SB Up $.0175 at $10.13; May Up $.02 at $10.1575. Dely: 93 SBO. Fund activity—sold 8 K SB; 7 K SBM & 2 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.01 at $5.09; May Up $.0150 at $5.0150. Dely: 33 HRW. Fund selling totaled 6 K on Monday on Friday
CORN/SORGHUM       ;
· Corn exports of 50.4 mbu were well in excess of the 30-35 expected by the trade and 39/week are now required per week to reach the USDA forecast, well below last year’s actual BOY rate of 45/week
· Milo exports totaled 8.1 million; 4.3 per week are necessary to achieve the USDA’s 300 mbu forecast
· IF, that’s IF competing exporters can attract Japan/S Korea business on par with 2YA, USDA forecast is 200 mbu TOO HIGH. Not a prediction, just keep your eye on weekly sales to these 2 destinations
· Cordonnier maintains South American estimates: Argentina, 23.0; Brazil, 74.0
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Wheat inspections of 16.5 million were very near the high end of the trade’s 12-17 range with 21+/wk needed
· Soybean inspections of 23.3 mbu were off sharply TW and nearly 13 mbu below LY with 9.6/week required
· Average progress this week on the Brazil bean harvest is about 10%, to 42% complete
· India’s 14/15 SBM exports could fall 750 K MT below LY, boosting U.S. market share
· Argentina remains estimated at 57.0; Brazil, 93.0--Cordonnier
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly higher: QCLJ15, +$0.78 at $50.37; QRBJ, +0.0406; QNGJ, -$.048; andQHOJ, +$.0325
· Cash ethanol markets began the week on a firmer note: Tampa and the Gulf rose 2 ½ cents; NY gained 1 ¼; Dallas and Chicago were each 1 higher with the latter at $1.42 ¼. The lone exception was LA which eased 1 ½ cents
· RINs were firmer: 2013’s gained 1 to 70-72; 2014’s rose ¾ of a cent to 71-72 and 2015’s edged up a ½ cent to 70-71
· The April RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread surged nearly 12 ¾ of a cent to $.4503, premium RBOB
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY </wbr>
· Choice boxed beef values increased $1.09 on Monday and have gained $10.99 over the last eleven trading days
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price eased $0.99 last week to $158.44/cwt, but is up $7.83 vs. last year
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 31-cents Monday and is $1.69 lower compared to a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.10 to $65.59. April futures up $0.20 to $67.675 and is $2.085 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, DTN Ag Weather