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Market Trend Corn, Up 3, Soybeans, Up 7, Wheat, Up 7 to 8

February 17, 2015 07:36 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, Up 3+; Soybeans, Up 7; Wheat, Up 7-8

·         Greece and the rest of the EU are at an impasse over a proposed 6-month extension of the former’s bail-out package. This had little impact in Asia where the Nikkei eased .10%; Shanghai posted a .78% gain and the Hang Seng closed a ¼ point higher.  The DAX is off .32%; the CAC 40 is .14% lower at mid-day while the FTSE is up .41%.  Pre-market indicators for U.S. indices are mixed:  DOW, up 1; NAS, +7.3 and the S&P, down 1 ¾. Outside markets find energy futures higher across the Board; the $ Index is ¼ point weaker at 94.035 and gold is down $3.80 to $1,222.70. 

·         T-storm Weather: Two cool fronts trigger multiple thunderstorm clusters from northern Paraguay and Parana northward through Center-West and Southeast Brazil through Friday-Saturday—widespread rainfall of 2.00”-4.00” (and locally higher) occur with highest totals most probably in Mato Gross do Sul and Sau Paulo.  To the south, a cool front triggers a few thunderstorms across central and northern Argentina Wednesday-Thursday, but only scattered 0.50”-1.00” amounts occur; other areas of and adjacent Argentina say mostly dry over the next 7-10 days

·         Mar Corn Up $.0325 at $3.9050; May Up $.03 at $3.9825.  The funds bought 5 K to close out the week  

·         Mar SB Up $.07 at $9.9750; May Up .07 at $10.0175.  Funds bought 4 K SB; 4 K SBM and 4 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.0775 at $5.4075; May Up $.0850 at $5.3775.   Fund activity estimate at 5 K in purchases on Friday

CORN/SORGHUM                                          &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                    

·         March 2015 corn futures closed at $3.87 ¼ on Friday; one year ago, the March 2014 contract settled at $4.40 ½

·         USDA Long-Term Projections: U.S. corn exports increase during the next decade in response to strong global demand for feed grains to support growth in meat production

·         T-storm Weather: Upcoming rainfall this week slows second-crop corn planting in Brazil

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 39.1 needed; 27.6 last week.  Milo—3.9 needed; 4.8 last week

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions decrease 19,248 contracts

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CDT; Soybeans, 12.4 needed; 54.6 last week

·         USDA Long-Term Projections: U.S. soybean acreage to decline from 84.0 mil. in 2014 to 78-79 mil. by 2024/25

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions decrease 13,106 contracts

·         Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 20.6 needed; 14.6 last week

·         USDA Long-Term Projections: U.S. imports of wheat projected to rise through 2024/25 due to increases from Canada

·         Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions decrease 2,360 contracts

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher: QCLH15, +$0.39 at $53.17; QRBH, +0.0046;  QNGH, +$.045; and QHOH, +$.0142

·         A mixed trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Friday (no report on Monday): Chicago and Gulf up ½; New York down ¾; Dallas eased ½; Tampa was steady; and LA was 1 ½ higher at $1.59 per gallon

·         RINs were higher: 2013’s up 1 ¼ at 71-71 ½; 2014’s gained ½ to 72-72 ½; and 2015’s added 1 to 71 ½-72

·         The Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread added another 2 ½ cents, moving out to $.1842/gallon on Friday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;       

· &n​bsp;       Choice boxed beef values were 54-cents higher on Monday but are down 26-cents from a week ago

·         5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price increased $1.50 last week to $161.78/cwt and is up $19.89 vs. last year

·         On Monday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 23- cents but is down $1.29 vs. last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index $0.90 lower to $63.01.  February futures up $0.125 to $62.075 and is $0.935 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

 

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