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Market Trend Corn, Up 2 to 3, Soybeans, Up 5, Wheat, Up 2 to 3

February 5, 2015 07:08 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, Up 2-3; Soybeans, Up 5; Wheat, Up 2-3

·         EU-Greek debt discussions falter after ECB says no to Greek banks using its junk bonds as borrowing collateral.  Old news but Asain markets mixed on China bank reserves cut:  Nikkei and Shanghai both close 1-1.2% lower with the Hang Seng gaining .35%.  European markets lower at mid-day with losses of .36% (DAX) to .67% (CAC-40).  U.S. pre-markets are positive:  DOW futures, up 57; S&P500, +9 and NAS, +10.  Data releases include weekly unemployment claims, December trade #’s & several corporate earnings reports, including the CME.  The $ Index is up .06 at 94.11; energy futures are all higher and gold is off $3.60/oz

·         T-storm Weather: A cool front and its remnant trigger thunderstorms in varying areas of Center-West, Northeast, and Southeast Brazil through Monday-Tuesday; well-organized rainfall of 1.75" to 3.50" occurs, which is wetter than the average of approximately 2.00" over the next week.  To the south, isolated thunderstorms occur into Sunday, but most of Argentina, Paraguay, and South Brazil stay dry.  Changes begin Sunday-Monday and continue into midweek as a cool front sweeps northward and triggers thunderstorm clusters; 0.75" to 1.50" is most probable over the next week.

·         Mar Corn Up $.03 at $3.8650; May Corn Up $.0275 at $3.9425.  The funds sold 5 K at mid-week

·         Mar SB Up $.05 at $9.77; May Up $.0525 at $9.84.  Funds sold 8 K SB; 7 SK SMB and 3 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.02 at $5.13; May Up $.03 at $5.17.  The funds were even in Wednesday’swheat trade  

 

CORN/SORGHUM                  &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;                   

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 31 to 39 mbu corn 

·         Ethanol grind: 948,000 barrels per day for week end Jan. 30--down 30 thou v. last week but 5.9% higher vs. last year

·         T-storm Weather: Rainfall of 0.75”-1.50” from Feb. 8-11 boosts moisture for some of the drier areas of southern Argentina, while preventing the intensity of wetness from increasing in wettest areas

·         March 2015 corn futures closed at $3.83 ½ on Wednesday—one year ago, March 2014 corn contract settled $4.41 ¾

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects soybeans, 31 to 39 mbu; soymeal, 120-320; soyoil, 5-50

·         T-storm Weather: Rainfall of 1.75”-3.50” for Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil into early next week results in the wettest period since early December for much of the region

·         March 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.72 Wed.—one year ago, March 2014 soybean contract settled at $13.13 ¼

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 11-18 mbu for all wheat

·         CBT March 2015 wheat futures closed at $5.11 Wed.—one year ago, March 2014 wheat contract settled at $5.84 ½

ENERGY

·         Futures are higher:  QCLH15, +$0.23 at $48.68; QRBH, +0.0185;  QNGH, +$.010; and QHOH, +$.0110

·         A mostly weaker trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago off 2 ¾; New York and Gulf down 3 ¼; Tampa slipped 1 ½; Dallas eased 2 ½; but LA was ½ higher at $1.55 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were lower: 2013’s eased ½ to 69-70; 2014’s down 1 ½ to 70-72; and 2015’s declined 1 ¾ to 69-70 ½

·         Lower ethanol output pushed the Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread in nearly 9 cents, to $.0417/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                ​                        &​nbsp;  

·      ​   Choice boxed beef values declined 36-cents on Wednesday and are $4.54 lower vs. a week ago  

·         March feeder cattle futures closed at $196.725 on Wednesday, the lowest settlement price since June 6, 2014

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.59 lower on Wednesday and has lost $5.84 compared to last week

·         CME Lean Hog Index 38-cents lower at $69.44.  February futures down $2.10 to $65.10 and $4.34 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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