HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 2-3; Soybeans, July 8-9 higher; SX, flat; Wheat, 6-6 ½ Higher
· Global equities remain in a holding pattern in anticipation of what the Fed says later in the day with some consternation over slowing home construction, rising inflation and implications for the slowly growing economy. Asia had a weaker tone with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite weaker, losing .09% and .54%, respectively; the Nikkei closed up .93%. Europe is trading positive in early activity—CAC 40 up .04%; FTSE, +.42% and the DAX, +.29%. U.S. futures find the Dow flat and the S&P, .1% higher. The outside markets show July crude up $.24/bbl at $106.60; the $ Index is .076 weaker at 80.64; gold, 80 cents cheaper
· T-Storm Weather: Widespread coverage of above-average warmth aids growth into the weekend as a large upper-level system approaches. Widespread coverage of near- and above-average rainfall occurs over the next week, focusing on central and northern areas into the weekend, then on southern areas next week. A drier pattern follows for several days within June 20-26. Later next week (June 27-30), a notably warmer pattern likely begins but thunderstorm clusters re-develop, thereby suppressing the longevity of any heat and keeping the central U.S. moist
· July Corn Up $.0275 at $4.4150; September Up $.0275 at $4.3675. The funds sold 3 K on Tuesday
· July Soybeans Up $.0850 at $14.0675; August Up $.0675 at $13.5525. Funds: sold 10 K SB; another 4 K SBM, bot 2 K SBO
· July Wheat Up $.0650 at $5.8825; September Up $.06 at $5.9675. Fund buying totaled 2 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· December 2014 corn futures traded to $4.36 ¼ on Tuesday, which is near the contract low of $4.35 made Jan. 10
· ATI Research: Expect U.S. corn exports the next 4 weeks to average 38-40mbu per week
· Private consultant: Brazil corn crop estimate increased 2.5 MMT to 77.0 MMT due to increased double crop acreage
· Ethanol margins declined to $0.73 per gallon vs. $0.89 last week and $0.21 last year. EIA report out at 9:30 AM CDT
· T-storm Weather: 92% of U.S. corn not excessively wet last 30 days so overall concern about forecasted rain is limited
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· July 2014 soybean futures traded to $13.95 ¾ on Tuesday, which is the lowest level since March 31
· ATI Research: Near-term U.S. soybean exports are expected to range from 2-5mbu per week
· Chicago July 2014 wheat futures traded to $5.76 ¾ on Tuesday--the lowest level since Feb. 7—but closed up $0.0075
· ATI Research: Near-term all wheat exports likely to range from 15-20mbu per week into mid-July
· T-storm Weather: Rains begin to slow HRW wheat harvesting in Central/Southern Plains on Thursday-Friday
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly higher: QCLN14, +$.28 at $106.63; QRBN, -$0.0008; QNGN, +$.0032; andQHON, +$.0046
· Weaker trend in cash ethanol markets continued Tuesday: Chicago slipped 4; Gulf down 3 ¼; Dallas eased 3; New York off 2; Tampa dipped 1 ½; and LA was 4 ½ lower at $2.37 per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, -1.1 mb (-5.7); gasoline, +0.2 (-0.05); distillates, +0.4 (+0.5); etoh output 930-940 Kbpd
· RINs mostly steady: 2012’s unch at 46-47; 2013’s down ¼ at 47-47 ½; and 2014’s unch at 45 ¾-46 ¼
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread widened further, up $.0403 to $.9491 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
· Choice boxed beef values increased $2.56 yesterday and have gained $5.91 over the last three trading days
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $150, but no packer bids reported. Cattle traded at mostly $148 last week
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained 78-cents yesterday and has increased $2.70 over the last two days
· CME Lean Hog Index gained $0.83 to $116.13. July future up $0.675 to $124.925 and are $8.795 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather