HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 2+; Soybeans, Up 10; Wheat, Up 1
· China remains closed for the Lunar Holiday; the Nikkei rose .7% and the Hang Seng closed up .4%. Early trading in Europe finds the CAC-40 up .2%; the DAX is nearly steady as is the U.K.’s FTSE. Market are treading water ahead of Yellen’s remarks to Congress on Wednesdayfor hints on Fed policy direction-will they or won’t they raise interest rates and if the former, when? Pre-Markets: DOW futures, up 15; S&P 500, +0.25 and the NAS, down .70. Externals: the $ Index is .103 higher at 94.76; March gold is $5.30 cheaper at $1,194.90 and energy futures are mostly positive.
· T-storm: Despite a few thunderstorms, mainly dry weather aids planting and harvesting in Center-West Brazil through Wednesday. Changes follow as a series of cool fronts trigger scattered thunderstorms from Thursday forward. Dry weather would be ideal so corn is planted far in advance of the dry season; the climate of Center-West turns sharply drier in April. To the south, a swath of heavy rainfall occurs in central Argentina over the next several days, resulting in flooding across / near San Luis; 1.50" to 3.00" of rain occurs. At least several days of cool and dry weather continue / follow
· Mar Corn Up $.0250 at $3.8125; May Up $.0275 at $3.8950. Active fund selling on Monday, estimated at 10 K
· Mar SB Up $.0975 at $10.9; May Up $.1025 at $10.1175. Fund activity: sold 2 K SB; even on SBM and sold 5 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.01 at $5.0675; May Sup $.0150 at $5.0550. The funds sold 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM      
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 7 mbu compared to last week to 1.834 Bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged at 27 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Near- to above-average rain of 2.00” to 4.00” impacts Center-West, Northeast and Southeast Brazil over Feb. 26-March 4. Therefore, conditions for second-crop corn planting likely remain challenging through 10 days
· Dec. 2015 corn futures closed at $4.10 ½ Monday, which is the lowest settlement price for the contract since Feb. 2
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout unchanged at 389 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Remnant of a cool front triggers a few thunderstorms across South Brazil the next few days. A few rounds of thunderstorms also recur Thursday-Friday, resulting in mixed conditions for soybean harvesting in Parana
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean exports forecast to average 35+/- mbu per week for the next four weeks
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 273 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 348 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Areas of light snow affect HRW wheat in parts of the central and southern Plains within Wednesday-Friday, resulting in pockets of 1” to 3” of accumulations
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly higher: QCLJ15, +$0.40 at $49.84; QRBJ, +0.0096; QNGJ, -$.028; andQHOJ, +$.0077
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly lower on Monday: Chicago slipped 2 ½; New York up 1 ¼; Gulf dropped 3; Dallas down 1 ¼; Tampa off 2; and LA was 5 ½ lower at $1.56 per gallon
· RINs were mixed: 2013’s down ½ to 70-72; 2014’s up 3/8 to 72-73; and 2015’s gained ½ to 72-72 ½
· The Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread moved out further, $.0385 to $.2427/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ;Choice boxed beef values were up 77-cents on Monday and are $2.86 higher compared to last week
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price decreased $2.35 last week to $159.43/cwt but is up $13.89 vs. last year
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value was down 11-cents on Monday and is $1.02 lower vs. a week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index up $0.13 to $60.40. April futures up $0.925 to $68.325 and is $7.925 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather