HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 2; Soybeans, SH, up ½; SK down 2-3; Wheat, Up 5-6
· With recent U.S. exports and business inventory re-building falling short of expectations, most economists see the government cutting its QIV GDP growth forecast from 3.1% the previous month and 4.1% last quarter, to 2.5%. New #’s are out this morning. U.S. futures suggest a lower start to the day’s trading: The Dow is 21 lower; the S&P, off 3 ¼ and the Nasdaq, down 6 ¾. Outside markets have the energy complex weaker; gold is $1.20 lower and the $ Index has dropped below 80.0, down .371 to 79.935
· T-storm Weather: Cool fronts occasionally trigger thunderstorms across key corn and soybean areas of Brazil to maintain or improve soil moisture for second-planted crops, while slowing first-crop harvesting and second-crop planting at times. It will not rain every day at any specific location, but rains occur every few days to produce near-average amounts through 10 days; potentially wetter from Mato Grosso southeastward through Sao Paulo and Parana. Except for a few thunderstorms around Sunday, dry weather occurs for one week in Argentina to diminish the intensity of wetness and aid sunflower harvesting.
· Mar Corn Up $.0250 at $4.5050; May Up $.0225 at $4.5675. The funds sold 7,000 contracts yesterday
· Mar SB Up $.0050 at $14.1475; May SB Down $.0175 at $13.8825. Funds sold 6 K SBO; 3 K SBM and 3 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0575 at $5.88; May Wheat Up $.04 at $5.9325. The funds were sellers of 6 KThursday
· Delivery Intentions: 4 corn; 17 SB, 1 SBM; 3,742 SBO; 0 SRW
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Export sales of corn for the week ending Feb. 20 were robust at 33.2mbu vs. the trade range of 19 to 31mbu. It looks as if the USDA’s 1.6Bbu annual export forecast is more and more on the money
· Milo export sales of 4.5mbu were solid as the total was up 28% from the prior 4-week average
· T-storm Weather: Temperatures across Argentina corn remain quite cool through Monday before turning seasonable
· March 2014 corn futures closed at $4.48 on Thursday compared to $7.09 ½ for March 2013 futures one year ago
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· March 2014 soybean futures made a new contract high of $14.52 ¼ on Thursday but closed $0.13 ¾ lower at $13.93 ½
· ATI Research: Total export sales were 23.6mbu (12.0 for 13/14 and 11.6 for 14/15). The old-crop total was surprisingly strong with China purchasing 10.6 million
· ATI Research: All wheat export sales were decent at 20.7mbu (13.4 for 13/14 and 7.3 for 14/15)
· T-storm Weather: Important for weekend snow to blanket HRW wheat in Kansas & Nebraska because extreme cold follows for 2 days; Nebraska likely to be adequately protected; chance for significant snow is increasing across Kansas
ENERGY
· Energies are lower again: QCLJ14, -$0.07 at $102.33; QRBJ, -$0.0093; QNGJ, -$.037 and QHOJ, -$.0023
· Cash ethanol markets were steady to firmer trend on Thursday: Chicago and Gulf were unchanged; NY up 6; Tampa and Dallas gained 11; and LA prices climbed 8 cents to $2.99 per gallon
· RINs declined again: 2012’s off 6 ½ to 45-49; 2013’s down 3 ¾ to 49-53; and 2014’s weakened 5 to 44-48
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread moved in $.0334 to $.5280/gallon, as logistics pull stocks down
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY  
· Choice boxed beef values increased $2.46 yesterday and have gained $7.66 over the last four days
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $2.05 yesterday to its highest value since August 16
· April through August hog futures jumped higher yesterday on PEDv fears to set new all-time highs
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $2.17 yesterday to $98.96
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather