HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 15; Soybeans, up 19; Wheat, Up 33-34
· Possible sanctions on Russia pounds most global equity markets: Nikkei falls 1.3%; the Hang Seng drops 1.5% but the Shanghai Composite bucks the trend, gains .9%. Europe notably weaker with the DAX off 2.3%; the FTSE is down 1.8% and France’s bourse is 2.5% lower. U.S. markets expected to start significantly lower (futures) with Dow showing -147; the S&P, -19 ¾ and the Nasdaq, off 39 ½. Energies head higher on Russian concerns/possible restrictions on nat gas exports; safe-haven gold is up over $23 and the $ Index is .155 higher at 79.87
· T-storm Weather: Isolated thunderstorms dotted parts of Center-West and Southeast Brazil over the weekend but high coverage of heavy rainfall did not occur. Near-average rainfall occurs in most of Brazil and Paraguay through 7-10 days. The best chance for above-average rainfall is from Center-West Brazil through Sao Paulo, while Rio Grande do Sul and far southern areas of Paraguay potentially stay drier with less than 1.00”. Conditions for first-crop harvesting and second-crop corn planting/growth remain neither ideal nor problematic. Coolness and below-average rainfall persist in Argentina through 7-10 days in Argentina
· Mar Corn Up $.14.50 at $4.72; May Up $.15 at $4.7850. The funds buy 8 K on Friday—Ukraine worries
· Mar SB Up $.1975 at $14.34; May Up $.1850 at $14.3225. Funds bought 8 K SB; 5 K SBM and 6 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.3325 at $6.3225; May Wheat Up $.3175 at $6.34. The funds bought 6 K Friday—Black Sea uncertainty
· Deliveries: 4 corn; 17 SB, 1 SBM; 1,042 SBO; 0 SRW
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Final spring base crop insurance price for December 2014 corn futures is $4.6168
· T-storm Weather: Coolness and lack of heavy rain across Argentina gradually improve conditions for corn
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 34.6 needed; 31.2 last week. Milo—3.6 needed; 0.2 last week. Note: USDA web site says federal offices are closed today, March 3rd
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures only positions increase 27,190 contracts
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Final spring base crop insurance price for November 2014 soybean futures is $11.3633
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 7.1 needed; 46.7 last week
· Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures only positions increase 5,063 contracts
· Unrest in Ukraine fueling ideas wheat exports will slow, boosting U.S. shipments. Futures highest since December
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 22.9 needed; 15.7 last week
· Commitment of Traders: CBT Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures only positions decrease 17,749 contracts
· T-storm Weather: Driest HRW wheat generally received under 0.33” this weekend to limit moisture improvement
ENERGY
· Russia aggression rallies energies: QCLJ14, +$1.69 at $104.28; QRBJ, +$0.0434; QNGJ, +$.111 and QHOJ, +$.0528
· A firmer trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Friday: Chicago up 5 ¾; Gulf gained 4 ½; NY advanced 7 ½; Tampa and Dallas were 12 ½ higher; and LA prices jumped 18 cents to $3.17 per gallon
· RINs slid further: 2012’s down a penny to 44-48; 2013’s off 4 to 45-49; and 2014’s declined 3 to 41-45
· The April RBOB/March ethanol spread gained $.0301 to close at $.4978/gallon Friday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values increased $3.92 Friday and have gained $11.58 over the last five days
· Cash cattle traded last week at mostly $150 to $152, up $4 to $5 from the week before and record high
· The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $2.26 Friday and has increased $10.10 over the last seven trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $2.55 Friday to $101.26
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather