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Market Trend Corn, up 1 to 2, Soybeans, Up 6 to 8, Wheat, Up 3

June 26, 2014 07:03 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, up 1-2; Soybeans, Up 6-8;  Wheat, Up 3

·         Foreign markets view the U.S.’s 2.9% QI decline as history with expectations for a sharp rebound since. And, little likelihood the Fed will raise interest rates.  Shanghai posts a .65% gain; the Nikkei rises .27% while the Hang Seng closed marginally lower, -.06%. Both the FTSE and DAX are up .10 to .15% this morning; the CAC 40 is .04% weaker. Futures for U.S. indices are called mostly flat. Outside markets find energy futures mixed; the $ Index is only slightly higher, +.005 at 80.27 and gold is off $12

·         T-Storm Weather: It remains likely for heat to stay west of key areas through at least 10-14.  Waves of energy combine with a tropical feed of air to trigger and fuel thunderstorm clusters; widespread coverage of near- and above-average rainfall recurs for another week. The favored location for thunderstorms is initially away from wettest areas of the Corn Belt, but then focus on wettest areas around Saturday-Sunday.  A drier and cooler pattern assembles as next week progresses; maximums mostly stay in the 70s-80s over July 1-5

·         July Corn Up $.0125 at $4.4225; September Up $.0150 at $4.3725.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday

·         July Soybeans Up $.08 at $14.2375; August Up $.0650 at $13.6825.   Funds activity:  bought 2 K SB; 3 K SBM and sold 3 K SBO 

·         July Wheat Up $.03 at $5.7850; September Up $.0325 at $5.8750.  The funds bought 2 K on Wednesday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CDT.  Trade expects 6 to 12mbu old-crop corn, 8-12 new-crop

·         T-storm Weather: Warmer after July 5, but sustain heat unlikely as wet soilsmake it easier-than-usual for rain to recur

·         Ethanol grind: 938 thou barrels per day for week end June 20—down 34 thou vs. last week but up 6.0% vs. 2013

·         ATI Research: Corn planted in Central Illinois on April 18 has accumulated approximately 1081 Growing Degree Days.  Assuming normal temperatures are seen, this crop would be pollinating on or around July 8

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales: Trade expects 2 to 6mbu old-crop soybeans, 7-15 new-crop ; soymeal, 0-100 K MT old, 0-150 new; soyoil, 0-20 old,  0-10 new

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean Good/Excellent crop condition of 72% is a record and well above the 10-year avg. of 63%

·         T-storm Weather: If 1.50” rain falls across U.S. soybean belt through Mon., June will be #1 wettest since at least 1894

·         Export Sales: Trade expects 11-17mbu for all wheat

·         T-storm Weather: Northern Kansas wheat forecast to see slightly below-normal rain through Monday, June 30

ENERGY

·         Futures are mixed QCLQ14, -$.10 at $106.40; QRBQ, +$0.0006; QNGQ, +$.0181; and QHOQ, -$.0046

·         Mixed but mostly firmer trend on Wednesday in cash ethanol markets: Chicago up 1; Gulf down 1; Dallas gained 4 ¼; New York was steady; Tampa climbed 1 ½; and LA nudged 2 higher to $2.39 ½ per gallon

·         RINs continued lower: 2012’s down 3 to 51-54 ½; 2013’s off 2 ¾ to 51 ½-54 ½; and 2014’s eased 3 to 51-54

·         The July RBOB/July ethanol spread lost $.0421 per gallon yesterday, to $1.0207

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                   &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;               

·  &nb​sp;      Choice boxed beef values gained 86-cents yesterday to a record high $244.52, passing the old record from Mar. 18

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $2.08 yesterday to a record $132.58, passing the old record from April 2

·         CME Lean Hog Index gained $1.44 to $123.12.  July future down $1.125 to $129.30, but are $6.18 above the index

·         Broiler egg set last week was up 0.9% from last year and average set over the last four weeks is 0.7% above last year

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 

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