HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1-2; Soybeans, Up 5-6; Wheat, Up 4
· Chinese trade data indicated a better-than-expected 9.7% growth in December exports year to year with imports declining 2.4%. This served to provide a modest .22% bounce in Shanghai values. The Hang Seng also moved up, gaining .79% while the Nikkei retreated .64%, due mainly to a cut in the government’s forecast for 2014 growth, which was trimmed back to ½%. Europe is higher with gains of ½% (FTSE) to .87-.88% (DAX, CAC) noted. Pre-market indications for U.S markets are higher: DOW futures, +79; NASA, +20.5 & the S&P. +8.5. Oil continues its slide; the $ Index is up ¼ point at 92.42 and gold is $6.40 higher, $1,239.10
· T-storm Weather: Stagnant upper-level high pressure keeps Goias and much of Northeast / Southeast Brazil sharply drier and warmer than usual over the next 7-10 days. The setup also causes several systems to pass to the south, resulting in heavy to unneeded rainfall from central / northern Argentina into South Brazil – especially through tonight in Argentina, and Wed-Thurs in Rio Grande do Sul. Near-average rainfall remains most probable in Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul as each state remains between each atmospheric feature. The pattern potentially breaks (at least temporarily) later next week (Jan. 21-23)
· Mar Corn Up $.0150 at $4.0350; May Up $.0150 at $4.1150. The funds bought 3 K on Monday
· Jan SB Up $.0575 at $10.1925; May Up $.05 at $10.21. Del’y: SB, 93 SBO, 135. Funds: sold 12 K SB; 8 K SBM; 8 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0425 at $5.5975; May Up $.0425 at $5.6425. The funds sold 5 K to start the week
CORN/SORGHUM ;
· ATI Research: Grain Stocks report suggests considerably less corn feed/residual use in Sept-Nov. v. trade expectations
· ATI Research: U.S. corn balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 263 mbu compared to last week to 1.851 Bbu
· ATI Research: U.S. sorghum balance sheet; 14/15 carryout up 9 mbu to 32 mbu
· T-storm Weather: In Brazil, 30-day rainfall deficits of 6.00" and more are common in Bahia, Goias, and Minas Gerais. These states accounted for 35% of first-crop corn over the last three seasons
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Updated U.S. soybean balance sheet; 14/15 carryout down 20 mbu to 370 mbu
· T-storm Weather: Heavy rains likely needed for soybeans within swaths of Center-West, Northeast & Southeast Brazil
· Private consultant: 2014/15 Brazil soybean crop estimate lowered 0.5 MMT to 93.5 MMT
· ATI Research: U.S. HRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 263 mbu; 15/16 carryout is forecast at 313 mbu
· T-storm Weather: A large upper-level weather system in the western U.S. moves eastward Jan. 19-21. A low chance for a winter storm exists at that time
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly lower: QCLG15, -$1.29 at $44.79; QRBG, -$0.0290; QNGG, +$.102; andQHOG, -$.0326
· Cash ethanol markets were lower on Monday: Chicago down 3 ½; New York and Gulf eased 2 ½; Dallas declined 8 ½; Tampa off 6 ½; and LA was 9 lower at $1.57 per gallon
· Weaker trend in RINs: 2013’s off ¾ to 71 ½-74; 2014’s down 2 at 72 ½-75; and 2015’s were 2 ¼ lower at 71 ½-75
· The inverse in the Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol spread picked up another $.0287, rising to -$.1815/gallon on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   Choice boxed beef values increased $1.99 on Monday and are $9.42 higher vs. a week ago
· 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average Steer price increased $3.73 last week to $169.67/cwt and is up $29.99 vs. last year
· USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased $1.10 on Monday and is 53-cents lower than one week ago
· CME Lean Hog Index 69-cents lower at $76.71. February futures down $2.375 to $76.65 and 6-cents below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather