HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1-2; Soybeans, Up 3-4; Wheat, Steady to Up 1
· Asia finished the trading day higher. The Nikkei rose 1.85% on strong December “core-machinery” orders, up 8.3% versus a 2.4% consensus & a modest 1.3% Nov gain. Shanghai was up ½% and the Hang Seng, +.44%. Russia & the Ukraine have a deal; Renault’s profits triple; Credit Suisse & Societe Generale profits jump: DAX, +1.54%; CAC 40 rises .88% and the FTSE, up .23%. Wall Street futures looking good: DOW, +82; S&P, +9 ¾ and the NAS, +25; even though Jan retail sales out this am likely to show 2nd consecutive decline. Haliburton to cut 5 K jobs—tanking oil prices. Futures higher; $ Index off .300 to 94.79; Gold, +$3.70
· T-storm Weather: Heavy thunderstorm clusters focus on / adjacent Paraguay and South Brazil through at least Sunday-Monday as a cool front dissipates. The front likely shifts further the north next week, gradually shifting thunderstorms into the heart of Center-West and Southeast Brazil (slowing soybean harvesting and corn planting, while aiding second-crop corn growth). That said, the movement of the front remains difficult to assess. We continue to forecast near-average rainfall of 1.00" to 3.00" across a large area next week, though the exact setup will likely be clearer to us by Friday
· Mar Corn Up $.0075 at $3.8650; May Up $.01 at $3.9475. The funds were even on Wednesday
· Mar SB Up $.0350 at $9.8125; May Up .04 at $9.8475. Funds bought 4 K SB; 3 K SBM and 2 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0050 at $5.2625; May Up $.0150 at $5.2525. The Funds bought 1 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM ;
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 24 to 33 mbu corn
· Ethanol grind: 961,000 barrels per day for week end Feb. 6--up 13 thou v. last week and 6.5% higher vs. last year
· T-storm Weather: Rainfall amounts projected for Center-West Brazil next week will affect harvesting and planting rates, as well as initial soil moisture levels for second-crop corn growth
· Through Feb. 11, the base crop insurance price for December 2015 corn futures has averaged $4.1491
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects soybeans, 9 to 17 mbu; soymeal, 150-350; soyoil, 10-50
· T-storm Weather: Soybean harvesting in Mato Grosso, Brazil advances through at least Sundayas upper-level high pressure suppresses rainfall
· Through Feb. 11, the base crop insurance price for November 2015 soybean futures has averaged $9.5866
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 11-18 mbu for all wheat
· T-storm Weather: Potential for patchy winterkill Sunday morning in snow-free SRW wheat areas of eastern Corn Belt
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLH15, +$1.24 at $50.06; QRBH, +0.0108; QNGH, +$.066; and QHOH, +$.0247
· A slightly weaker trend was noted in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago and Tampa off ½; New York and Gulf down 1 ½; Dallas eased a penny; and LA was 1 lower at $1.59 per gallon
· RINs were lower: 2013’s down 1 7/8 to 69-71; 2014’s off 1 ¾ to 71-72 ½; and 2015’s eased 1 ½ to 70-72
· The Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread eased ¾+ of a cent, to $.0920 as production rebounded & stocks rose 149 K
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values increased $1.31 on Wednesday but remain $3.01 lower compared to a week ago
· February live cattle futures closed at $158.60 on Wednesday, up $9.275 from the recent low on Jan. 26
· The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value increased 46-cents on Wednesday but is down $1.82 vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.96 to $64.82. February futures down $0.30 to $61.225 and is $3.595 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather