HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1-2; Soybeans, Up 1-2; Wheat, Up ¾ to 1
· Australia’s S&P/ASX led Asian markets overnight, up 1.2% and the Aussie $ strengthened on a surprising December trade surplus. The Nikkei was positive for most of the session, but closed .2% lower; the Kospi and Hang Seng each posted gains, up .9% and .7%. Early trading finds Europe higher: DAX, +.6%; FTSE, +.3% and the CAC-40, +.4%. U.S. traders are awaiting tomorrow’s Jan non-farm payroll report. U.S. futures look poised to claw back some of the markets recent losses: Dow, +67; S&P, +8; and the Nasdaq, +16 ¼. Gold is $3.90 to the plus side; Nat Gas is leading the energy complex higher and the $ Index is +.076 at 81.205
· T-storm Weather: South America is locked in a pattern that is not expected to break for at least 7-10 days, if not longer. The pattern results in high coverage of above-average heat and below-average rainfall across Brazil (except Mato Grosso) and Paraguay, and above-average rainfall with flooding across central and southern Argentina. It is plausible for: 1) some Argentina soybeans to receive too much rain, 2) some later-planted first crops in Brazil to experience some stress (especially in and near Southeast Brazil), and 3) second-planted crop areas of Brazil to be drier than ideal for early growth and establishment
· Mar Corn Up $.0150 at $4.4475; May Up $.0175 at $4.4925. The funds bought 1 K yesterday
· Mar SB Up $.01 at $13.1725; May SB Up $.01 at $13.0050. Funds bought 2 K SB, sold 2 K SMB and bought 4 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0075 at $5.8825; May Wheat Up $.0075 at $5.90. Fund buying totaled 3 KWednesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST. Trade expects 35 to 47mbu corn. Will there be follow-through buying after last week’s surprisingly strong total of 76.5 million?
· Ethanol grind for week end Jan. 31: 895 thou barrels per day, down 5 thou vs. last week but up 15.6% vs. 774 last year
· T-storm Weather: Main storm track in Argentina remains stuck & causes thunderstorms to form in various corn areas every day well into next week. Widespread rain of 3.00”-6.00” remains probable, which is enough to induce flooding
· Feb. 10 WASDE report: Avg. trade guess Argentina corn crop, 24.0 MMT vs. 25.0 in January, Brazil, 70.1 MMT vs. 70.0
· ATI Research: U.S. corn usage for Dec-Feb should be in the 3.2-3.3Bbu range compared to only 2.7Bbu last year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Export Sales: Trade expects 20 to 31mbu soybeans; soymeal, 100-200 K MT; soyoil, 0-30 KMT
· Feb. 10 WASDE: Avg. trade guess Argentina soybean crop, 54.1 MMT vs. 54.5 in January, Brazil, 89.9 MMT vs. 89.0
· ATI Research: Interesting to see what the USDA will do with U.S. soybean demand (i.e. exports and crush) in Monday’s report. Some are 30-35mbu higher on usage but any increase in disappearance will likely be offset by imports
· Export Sales: Trade expects 18 to 28mbu all wheat. Will there be follow-through buying after last week’s sales surge?
· ATI Research: Crop condition ratings suggest 2014 Kansas wheat yield of 40.0bpa; however, this is not an official forecast due to the fact that spring ratings are a much better indicator of final output
ENERGY
· Energy is higher-esp Nat Gas: QCLH14, +$0.51 at $97.89; QRBH, +$0.0151; QNGH, +$.33 andQHOH, +$.0038
· A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago and Gulf were unch; NY gained 4; Tampa down 3; Dallas was steady; and LA prices dropped 3 cents to $2.15 per gallon
· Sharp jump in RINs: 2012’s up 6 to 48-51; 2013’s gained 7 to 49-53; and 2014’s were 5 ¾ higher at 46-53
· The March RBOB/February ethanol spread traded at $.7494/gallon, nearly 8 cents weaker
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·   After a 40-cents bounce on Tuesday, Choice boxed beef values turned sharply lower again yesterday falling $3.85
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards offerings at $146 while packers bid $139. Cattle traded LW at $145 to $146
· After increasing $1.96 over the previous two days, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout eased 41-cents yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 25-cents yesterday to $82.68
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather