HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1 ½ to 2; Soybeans, Down ¼ (SF) to -5; Wheat, Up 4-5
· World markets cast weak U.S. jobs #’s aside, generally mixed. Analysts point to bitterly cold weather as a partial explanation for the poor number, e.g., not a game-changer after weeks of steady improvement. Hang Seng, up .2%; Shanghai, off .2%; Kospi gains .5%; Nikkei closed. French and UK markets both up .1% while the DAX is .1% lower. U.S. futures weaker: S&P, down 6 ¾; Nasdaq, off 13 ¼; Dow, 32 lower. Gold is $1.12/oz lower; energies are mostly weaker and the $ Index, down .049 at 80.705
· T-storm Weather: Sharp warming in Argentina begins today-Tuesday as dry weather continues; at least five consecutive days reach the mid-90s to mid-100s in southern growing areas. Heat in the south is viewed as problematic because many locations across Buenos Aires and within parts of central Argentina received only one-half of its average rainfall and less over the medium to long term (last 45 days) and have deficits of 3.00” – 5.00”; deficits will range from 4.00” – 6.00” one week from now. A strong system passes near the region within January 17-19 but it is unclear whether high coverage of thunderstorms will form
· Mar Corn Up $.0175 at $4.3450; May Up $.0150 at $4.4225. Large fund buying on Friday, estimated at 30 K
· Jan SB Down $.0025 at $13.00; Mar SB Down $.0475 at $12.7375 Funds: sold 4 K SB and SBM, even on SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0425 at $5.7325; May Wheat Up $.0450 at $5.7950. The funds sold 10 K on Friday
CORN/SORGHUM
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ATI Research: Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks report confirmed record U.S. corn usage during September-November of 4.336Bbu, with feed/residual use at 2.390Bbu (also a record) compared to 2.082 last year
· T-storm Weather: Occasional thunderstorms aid corn producing areas in South Brazil and Paraguay. Conditions are much drier in Southeast Brazil and some areas of the Center-West have also been drier-than-normal of late
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Corn, 28.8 needed; 19.3 last week. Milo—3.5 needed; 0.7 last week
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Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long corn futures positions increase 3,995 contracts
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks report confirmed record U.S. soybean usage during Sept-Nov of 1.294Bbu
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T-storm Weather: Occasional thunderstorms aid soybean producing areas in South Brazil and Paraguay
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Soybeans, 16.8 needed; 56.4 last week
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Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long soybean futures positions decrease 19,614 contracts
· ATI Research: USDA Grain Stocks report confirmed record low U.S. wheat feed/residual usage during Sept-Nov
· Export Inspections released at 10 AM CST; Wheat, 18.2 needed; 13.6 last week
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Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long CBT wheat futures positions increase 2,845 contracts
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Commitment of Traders report: Non-Commercial long KCBT wheat futures positions decrease 748 contracts
ENERGY
· Energy markets—mostly lower: QCLG14,-0.84 at $91.88; QRBG, -$0.01; QNGG,+$.102 andQHOG, -$.0089
· Cash ethanol markets were higher on Friday: Chicago gained 2; Gulf up a penny; Dallas and Tampa were 3 ½ firmer; New York increased 2; and LA advanced 3 ½ to $2.71 ½ per gallon
· RINs were mixed: 2012’s steady at 28-30; 2013’s up ¼ at 29-31; & 2014’s declined ¼ to 29-31
· The February RBOB/February ethanol spread closed at $.7061 on Friday, in $.0115/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY
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Plains cash cattle traded at a record high $139 on Friday. Prices were up $2 from the week before
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Choice boxed beef values gained $2.93 Friday to set a new record high of $214.98/cwt
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The USDA pork carcass cutout value eased 11-cents Friday, but is still up 80-cents from a week earlier
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The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $2.17 Friday to $76.08
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather