HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up ¾ to 1; Soybeans, Up 7-8, led by the near-bys; Wheat, 1-2 Higher
· Overseas markets varied widely in over-night performance. The Nikkei lost 1.8%; the Hang Seng posted a 1.5% gain and Shanghai fell .6%. Europe is in the red in early trading: the FTSE is .75% lower; the DAX, off .4% and France’s CAC-40, down .36%. East Coast weather will likely curb trading activity on Wall Street; futures have the Dow down 31 points; the S&P, off a ½ and the Nasdaq, up 10 ¼. There is little in the way of news to report. Gold is $5.77 to the plus side at $1,295.50; the $ Index is a 1/3rd of a point lower at 80.40 and the energy complex is mixed—QCKH14, off 60 cents
· T-Storm Weather is calling for the upper-level high to move away from Brazil, resulting in above-average rainfall across western growing areas (and potentially Paraguay). Seasonable amounts will occur elsewhere in Center-West and South Brazil, and the SE will continue to get below-average amounts. He expects 2-4” amounts for Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, and 1 – 2” amounts elsewhere in Brazil. In Argentina, an unseasonably cool pattern will dominate the next week. Mainly dry weather occurs throughSaturday, but a wave of energy is probable to trigger a round or two of unneeded rainfall, approx. 1”,Sunday-Monday, and most likely again late next week.
· Mar Corn Up $.01 at $4.41; May Up $.01 at $4.47. The funds sold 3 K yesterday
· Mar SB Up $.0775 at $13.30275; May Up $.0750 at $13.1725. Funds sold 5 K SB; 4 K SBM and bought 3 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.02 at $5.89; May Wheat Up $.0150 at $5.8775. The funds sold 2 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Federal offices in Washington are closed this morning due to snow. Export sales and USDA 10-year baseline projections are likely postponed until the weather clears
· Ethanol grind rose 7 K to 902,000; weekly grind up 14% year to year; potential impact on corn c/o should not be dismissed—USDA grind at 5.0; some as low as 4.95 with others flirting with the 5.1+ bbu level
· Recent run-up in corn prices has given importers reason for pause but Colombia and Mexico are both seeking U.S.
· Deere lowers 14/15 ag price forecasts: Corn, down $.25 to $4.25; soybeans, 50 cents lower at $10.50 and wheat, $6.50 versus $6.75 previously—reported by Bloomberg
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Strategie Grains lefts 13/14 EU soft wheat forecast at 24.3 MMT; raises 14/15 1.2 MMT to 21.7
· Market talk has unloading of U.S. bean vessels at Chinese ports being delayed—possible containment with MIR 162 GMO corn; 10 mbu cancellation yesterday believed to be for March loading with Feb demand decent
· Brazil on pace to ship 3 MMT of beans in Feb, compares to 2.37 MMT a year ago
· Early estimates for next week’s NOPA crush are in the 162.5-165 range; versus 165.4 LM and 158.2 for Jan 2013
ENERGY
· The energies are mixed: QCLH14, -$0.60 at $99.78; QRBH, -$0.0189; QNGH, +$.153 and QHOH, +$.0026
· Cash ethanol markets were mostly higher: Tampa gained 9; LA and Dallas were 5 ½ and 4 ½ higher, respectively; the Gulf gained 2 and Chicago was up a ½ at $1.98. New York, however, fell 7 ½ cents to $2.4150 per gallon
· RINs, lower: 2012’s eased 2, to 53-55; 2013’s fell 2 7/8’s to 54-56 and 2014’s lost 3 cents, to 53-55
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread was little changed on Wednesday, -.0015 to $.7891/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ; ;
· ; Choice boxed beef values fell $1.09 yesterday and have lost $3.11 over the last two days
· The USDA pork carcass cutout gained $1.41 yesterday and is at its highest value since November 14
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 22-cents yesterday to $83.64
· Last week’s broiler egg set was up 1.0% from last year and has averaged 1.5% above last year over the last four weeks
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather