HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up ¾ to 1; Soybeans, Up 2-4; Wheat, Up ¼ to ¾
· Asia mixed following yesterday’s strong U.S. market showing; the EU is steady to lower. The Nikkei closed off .39%; the Hang Seng was up .49% and Shanghai was little change at +.02%. The latest quotes from the Continent show the DAX off .15% and the CAC-40, .18% weaker with the UK’s FTSE up .06%. BlackRock, the world’s largest money manager sees QIV profits up 24%. Good results from BOA, a positive Fed survey on economic growth and favorable remarks about the global economy from the World Bank and IMF head noted. Major US indices look mostly lower this am: Dow, -13; S%P, -2 ¼ and Nasdad futures, +1/4. Gold is a little weaker; the energies are mixed and the $ Index is off .019 at 81.125.
· Disappointing Argentine rains. In Brazil, Mato Grosso had light showers as did c/s Paraguay, RGDS & Sao Paulo. Argentina will be mostly hot/dry through Friday/Saturday. The best chance for rain will occur this weekend, bias south. The rain should continue on a daily basis early next week. SW areas look a little drier in the 6-10 day outlook. Next 10 days in Brazil: A favorable mix of rain/sunshine, seasonal readings. NE Brazil will continue to dry down, some chance for precip for the weekend into next week. Australia is hot.
· Mar Corn Up $.0075 at $4.2650; May Up $.0075 at $4.3425. Funds sell 7 K in Wednesday trade
· Mar SB Up $.0275 at $13.2075; May SB Up $.04 at $13.0150. Funds bought 7 K SB, 5 SBM and bought 2 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.0050 at $5.6825; May Wheat Up $.0025 at $5.75. The funds sold 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· Ethanol grind falls 5.6 mbu the week of January 10—mostly due to severe cold and transportation difficulties
· Export Sales released 7:30 CST. Trade expects 12-22 corn against 9.8/week needed and 6.1 LW. Milo needs to average 1.6 per week, while sales LW were virtually nil
· Is global feed demand that strong? USDA says consumption of feed wheat, corn and sbm will rise by 7.7% (64 MMT) in 13/14; average growth is considerably lower at 1.8-2.0% per year
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Record December NOPA crush at 165.4 mbu on strong meal exports. YTD shipments are flat versus LY with USDA expecting a slight decline. Implied domestic meal use appears to be up 425 K from Nov and 8% vs Dec 12
· Export Wheat Sales: 13-22 mbu expected; 10.8 LW with 11.1/week needed
· Soy Complex Export Sales: SB, 28-39 mbu expected versus 5.7 LW and (0.1) needed; SBM, 50-150 K MT versus 62.8 K LW and 92 needed; SBO, 0-35 K MT expected compared to 33.6 K LW and 6.9/week required
· Larger 14/15 EU wheat carry-out expected: Strategie Grains expects stocks to rise from 13.5 TY, to 18.5 MMT
ENERGY
· Energy markets are mixed: QCLG14,+$0.28 at $94.45; QRBG, -$0.01; QNGG,+$.117 andQHOG, -$.0089
· Cash ethanol markets slip despite smaller output: Dallas and Tampa edged ¾ to 1 lower; LA was off ¾; the Gulf backed off 2; Chicago was down 1 ¾ cents and NY traded 3 lower
· Ethanol stx fall 60 K to 16.1 million barrels, yr to yr deficit widens from 3.7 mb LW, to 4.3 currently
· RINs were little changed: 2012’s, steady at 30-31; 2013’s were a ¼ higher,30 ½-31 with 2014’s steady at 30 ½-31
· The February RBOB/February ethanol spread widened a penny and 1/3rd, to $.7174 per gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
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Cash cattle lightly traded yesterday at $142, up $3 from last week and a new record high
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Broiler-Eggs set at 103% of a year ago; Chick Placements were steady versus last year
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Choice boxed beef values gained $3.58 yesterday to set a new record high for a fifth consecutive day at $224.62
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After gaining $1.65 the day before, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell $1.19 yesterday
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The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price eased 4-cents yesterday to $78.63
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather