HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1; Soybeans, SQ, Up 3; SX, Down 1-2; Wheat, 6-7 Higher
· Wire services report Russian troop numbers are increasing along the Ukrainian border and this news has pressured global markets overnight as investors flee riskier type assets. Shanghai slipped .11%; the Hang Seng lost .26% and the Nikkei fell more than 1%. Europe reacted more strongly, as one might expect: the DAX is trading 1.6% lower; the FTSE has lost 1.15% of its value and the CAC-40 is 1.34% to the downside. U.S. markets look weaker with futures indicating a 31 point decline in the Dow; the S&P points 1.4 lower and the NAS, down 4.75. June trade data will be released this morning but will likely take a back seat to Mr. Putin’s antics. Externals: energy futures are higher; gold is up $4.40 at $1,28840 and the $ Index, .154 higher at 81.765
· T-Storm Weather: Waves of energy originating from the southwest monsoon and interior Canada develop rain and thunderstorms across the central U.S. through Sunday-Monday. The favored location for rainfall is complicated by computer model algorithm limitations, and a series of back-door cool fronts that flow from east to west into the Corn Belt. We continue to forecast widespread rain through the period with the axis of heaviest amounts centered on the heart of the corn & soybean belt
· Sep Corn Up $.0125 at $3.5750; December Up $.01 at $3.6825. The funds sold 4 K on Tuesday
· August Up $.0325 at $12.26; Sep Up $.01 at $10.8250. Funds sold 6 K SB; 5 K SBM and 4 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Up $.0725 at $5.5975; December Up $.06 at $5.7875. The funds purchased another 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· T-storm Weather: Several days of cooler and drier weather for the Corn Belt should begin aroundMonday
· ATI Research: The combined total of old- and new-crop unshipped corn export sales is the third highest since 2000
· Private crop consultant notes that the advanced development of the corn in the southern Corn Belt means that continued dryness would only have a minor impact on the eventual corn yield
· ATI Research: Recent U.S. milo old-crop export sales is a 20-year high and 4 times the 5-year average
· Ethanol margins: $0.77 per gallon vs. $0.81 last week and above $0.40 last year. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Soybean export model is forecasting 3.7mbu per week over the next month vs. 3.4 a year ago
· Private crop consultant: Dryness in the areas where double-crop soybeans are planted will be important to watch
· T-storm Weather: Rain amounts increased to 1.25”-2.50” across southwest two-thirds of the soybean belt Wed-Thurs
· ATI Research: North Dakota spring wheat yields have increased markedly vs. USDA crop ratings in recent years
· Large areas of southeastern Australia have excellent soil moisture reserves for wheat
ENERGY
· Futures are higher: QCLU14, +$.16 at $97.54; QRBU, +$0.0168; QNGU, $.006; and QHOU, +$.0066
· Weaker trend in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago off 3 ¼; Gulf slid 4 ½; New York declined 6; Dallas eased 1 ½; Tampa dropped 2 ½; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $2.26 ½ per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, -1.7 mb (-5.5); gasoline, +0.1 (-3.6); distillates, +1.0 (-0.5)
· Slight gains seen in RINs: 2012’s up ¾ to 52 ½-53 ½; 2013’s climbed ¾ to 53-53 ½; but 2014’s were 1 higher at 53-54
· The September RBOB/September Ethanol spread gained 11 ½ cents to settle at $.7495/gallon
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values firmed 5-cents yesterday and have gained 14-cents over the last two days
· Cash cattle are quiet with Feedyards asking around $165, but no packer bids. Cattle traded last week at $162 to $164
· After firming 12-cents Monday, The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased 35-cents yesterday
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.79 to $124.32. August future down $1.225 to $115.85 and are $8.47 below the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather