HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up ½ to 1; Soybeans, Mixed, ¾ higher to 1 lower; Wheat, 3 Lower
· Global markets are treading water ahead of today’s ECB meeting and data from U.S. payroll processor ADP as well as an up-date on service industry activity. Some noting potential for downside market risk should the U.S. Fed completely withdraw it stimulus program later in the year. U.S. futures show the Dow up 12; the S&P, 2 ¾ higher and the NAS, +1.50. Europe was mixed in early trading: CAC 40, -.40%; DAX, -.60% and the FTSE, +.02%. Asia should similar activity. Outside markets have energy futures mostly higher; gold is $1.50 higher at $1,270.40 and the $ Index is up a modest .022 at 82.91
· T-Storm Weather: Large temperature fluctuations occur over the next 10-14 days, including a brief period of unseasonable coolness late next week (Sep. 11-13) that is unlikely to induce a killing freeze. A few thunderstorms dot the Corn Belt over the next several days as cool and warm air battle for position, but rain chances are higher next week, which is why we are forecasting above-average rainfall across much of the Corn Belt, Delta, and central / southern Plains over the next 10 days
· Sep Corn Up $.0050 at $3.4175; December Up $.01 at $3.53. Deliveries: 0. The funds sold 10 K-higher crop estimates
· Sep Soybeans Up $.0075 at $10.8150; Nov Down $.0075 at $10.1925. Del’y: SBO, 826. The funds sold 7 K SB; 7 K SBM; 3 K SBO
· Sep Wheat Down $.0325 at $5.2025; December Down $.03 at $5.3275. Del’y: 249 HRW; 2 SRW. The funds sold 8 K Tuesday
CORN/SORGHUM
· September 2014 corn closed at $3.41 ¼ on Wed., which is lowest price for nearby corn contract since June 29, 2010
· T-storm Weather: Widespread rain (1.00”-2.00”) affects Corn Belt, Delta & central/southern Plains over next 10 days
· ATI Research: U.S. corn export prices still at a premium to other key exporters such as Brazil, Argentina and Black Sea
· Private crop consultant notes that recent weather is allowing the U.S. corn crop to continue developing under good conditions but it is also promoting the development diseases
· Ethanol margins: $0.93 per gallon, unchanged from last week and below last year’s $1.01. EIA report at 9:30 AM CDT
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: U.S. soybean export prices at a $40 to $50 per MT discount to Argentina and Brazil in shipping to China
· Private crop consultant notes that while there could be more Sudden Death Syndrome (SDS) in U.S. soybeans this year in specific locations, it’s uncertain at this point that there is more SDS than normal on a nationwide basis
· ATI Research: Substitution by millers of HRW wheat for HRS is occurring due to quality issues with the 2014 HRS crop
· T-storm Weather: Best rain chances into at least early next week are north and east of key U.S. spring wheat areas
ENERGY
· Futures are mostly slightly higher: QCLV14, -$0.42 at $95.12; QRBV,+$0.0006; QNGV, $.00; andQHOV, +$.0002
· Significant losses were seen in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago slid 7; Gulf off 4 ½; Dallas declined 5 ½; Tampa eased a nickel; New York dropped 6; and LA was 5 ¼ lower at $2.32 per gallon
· EIA estimates (API): Crude, -1.1 mb (-0.5); gasoline, -1.4 (+0.4); distillates, -0.2 (+0.4)
· Fractional gains in RINs: 2012’s steady at 49-49 ½; 2013’s up 1/8 at 49 ¼-49 ¾; & 2014’s gained 1/8 to 49 ¼-49 ¾
· The October RBOB/Ethanol spread widened $.1060 per gallon yesterday to $.62 as lower corn pressed ethanol prices
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· ; After falling $16.30 over the previous 17 trading days, Choice boxed beef values gained $1.47 yesterday
· Cash cattle are quiet with feedyards asking $158 while packers bid $154. Cattle traded last week at $155 to $156
· After increasing $3.07 over the previous three trading days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value fell $1.08 yesterday
· CME Lean Hog Index down $0.78 to $95.67. October futures up $1.225 to $101.11 and are $5.43 above the index
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather