HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, Up ½ to 1: Soybeans,  Down 7-8;  Wheat, 4 ¼  

·         Overseas markets began the day on a positive note with the Nikkei up 1.9%; the Hang Seng posted a 1.3% gain with bourses in Indian and Taiwan also higher while Shanghai faded to close .2% lower.  Europe was decidedly lower despite a 1.4% increase in November retail sales and unemployment holding steady at 12.1%.  U.S. futures suggest a modest, positive start with both the Dow and S&P up .1%.  Gold is .34% lower at $1.225.40; the energies are firmer and the $ Index is up nearly a ¼ point at 81.185

·         T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms bring 0.75” – 1.50” of rain to Argentina through Friday; heat breaks Thursday.  Scattered thunderstorms also occur in southern Brazil & Paraguay, though the brunt of significant rainfall holds until Friday-Tuesday when 1.50” – 3.00” occurs.  Climate of Center-West/Southeast Brazil is very wet in January with several areas averaging up to 3.50” per 10 days.  Widely scattered thunderstorms occur, but well-organized & heavy rainfall that is common of January remains unlikely as upper-level high pressure suppresses rain for 5-10 days; 14-day deficits of 2.50” – 5.00” are not uncommon  

·         Mar Corn Up $.0050 at $4.2650; May Up $.01 at $4.3475.  The funds bought 2 K yesterday

·         Jan SB Down $.0725 at $12.9225; Mar SB Down $.06 at $12.70.  The funds were even on SB, bought 3 K SBM and sold 2 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Up $.04 at $6.0650; May Wheat Up $.04 at $6.1175.  The funds sold 3 K yesterday

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         ATI Research: 13/14 corn carryout up 91mbu vs. last week to 1.905Bbu; 14/15 increases a like amount to 2.184Bbu 

·         T-storm Weather: Coolness is needed for reproducing corn in Argentina given that the last 14 days were considerably warmer than usual by 3-6 degrees

·         Average trade guess for U.S. corn crop in Friday’s USDA Crop Production report is 14.060Bbu vs. 13.989 in Nov.

·         Average trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. corn stocks in Friday’s USDA Grain Stocks report is 10.770Bbu. vs. 8.030 last year

·         Average trade guess for U.S. 13/14 corn carryout in Friday’s WASDE is 1.844Bbu compared to 1.792 in December

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: 13/14 soybean carryout up 27mbu from last week at 130mbu; 14/15 increases like amount to 370mbu

·         T-storm Weather: Short-term moisture deficits have quickly developed across soybean areas of Center-West and Southeast Brazil over the last two weeks; this region accounts for 54% of total soybean production

·         Average trade guess for U.S. soybean crop in Friday’s USDA Crop Production report is 3.278Bbu vs. 3.258 in Nov.

·         Average trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. soybean stocks in Friday’s Grain Stocks report is 2.170Bbu. vs. 1.970 last year

• Average trade guess for U.S. 13/14 soybean carryout in Friday’s WASDE is 151mbu compared to 150 in December
• ATI Research: 13/14 all wheat carryout unchanged vs. last week at 535mbu with 14/15 pegged at 685mbu

·         Average trade guess for Dec. 1 U.S. all wheat stocks in Friday’s Grain Stocks report is 1.410Bbu. vs. 1.671 last year

• Average trade guess for U.S. 13/14 all wheat carryout in Friday’s WASDE is 559mbu compared to 575 in December

ENERGY

·         Energy markets—firmer: QCLG14,+$0.31 at $93.98; QRBG, +$0.0027; QNGG, +$.061 andQHOG, +$.0112

·         A mixed trend was evident in cash ethanol markets on Tuesday: Chicago was down 2; Gulf gained a nickel; Dallas was 4 higher; Tampa up 7; New York climbed 12; and LA was advanced 4 ¼ to $2.63 ¼ per gallon

·         RINs mostly steady: 2012’s unch at 31-33 ½; 2013’s unch at 32-34; & 2014’s down ¾ at 31-33

·         EIA estimates (API):  crude, down 600 K bbl (-7.3 mb); gasoline, up 2.0 (+5.6); distillates, +3.0 (+5.2)

·         The February RBOB/February ethanol spread moved out $.0936 to $.7346 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                 &n​bsp;                        &n​bsp;                

• ​Cash cattle traded at a record high $137 last week and helped push nearby futures to record highson Friday.
• Choice boxed beef values gained $1.86 Friday and Select values increased $1.33 to a record high $197.38
• The USDA pork carcass cutout value eased 62-cents Friday and has lost 78-cents over the last two trading days
• The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price eased 81-cents Friday to $78.00

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather