HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up ¼-1/2; Soybeans, Down 6-7; Wheat, Up 3+
· Global markets are up-beat ahead of the new Fed chairperson’s remarks to Congress where she is expected to maintain a delicate balance between continuing along the path of de-stimulus while insuring the slowly improving nature of the economy is such that higher interest rates are still a long way off. Asia posted gains of from .84% (Shanghai) to 1.77-1.78% (the Nikkei and Hang Seng) and early trading in Europe has markets up .6% (CAC-40) to 1.2% (the DAX). U.S. stocks futures appear ready to follow suit: Dow, +48; S&P, +5 ¼ and the Nasdaq, +10 ¾. Gold, +$10; crude is over $100/bl and the $ Index is .147 lower at 80.58
· No change in T-Storm’s weather perspective as widespread heat and dryness continue midweek in Brazil with heavy t-storm clusters persisting in Argentina. Then, the pattern changes as upper-level high pressure exits Brazil and allows the storm track to shift northward, bring the occasional t-storm for much of Brazil and Paraguay from Thursday forward (except in / near Minas Gerais). After a several-day break in t-storms Thursday-Sunday in Argentina, scattered amounts will return around Monday but high coverage of heavy rainfall is not currently expected. In the U.S., a much milder pattern causes snowpack to diminish from south to north over the next 10 days, though snowpack will linger from the northern Plains through the northern Corn Belt.
· Mar Corn Up $.0025 at $4.4325; May Up $.0025 at $4.49. The funds were even in Monday trade
· Mar SB Down $.06 at $13.1950; May Down $.06 at $13.0625. Funds sold 4 K SB; 4 K SBM and bought 4 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Up $.03 at $5.8775; May Wheat Up $.0325 at $5.8825. The funds bought 5 K to start the week
CORN/SORGHUM
· Yesterday’s USDA S&D report confirms strong export demand, up 150 mbu with a corresponding drop in carry-out to 1.48 billion, 140 below the trade average and 90 million short of the low end of market estimates
· ATI Research: In Feed/Residual, just how large is “residual”? Approximately 25% of the USDA’s forecasted 965 mbu increase in usage for 13/14 according to ATI studies
· Corn inspections improve 5+ million to 27.4; market now needs 34.4 per week with new 1.6 bbu USDA forecast
· Milo shipments a little light at 2.6 mbu, one million less than the weekly rate needed
· USDA, trade agree on S Am crop size: Argentina 1 lower at 54.0; Brazil, up 1 to 90
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· USDA tinkers with soybean residual, adds 5 to imports and is able to leave c/o at 150 despite 15 higher export forecast. The trade was expecting a stocks decline of 5 mbu
· S Am soybean crop adjustments are near trade thinking: Arg down ½ to 54.0; Brazil up 1 to 90, Paraguay, +300 K
· Sharp rebound in soybean inspections, up 13.2 million to 57; exceeds 42-48 trade ideas; 9.6/week needed
· More wheat exports, higher mill grind surprises trade as carry-out falls 50 mbu to 558 (606 ave; 574-653 range)
· Wheat inspections improve 4+ to 16.4, exceeds trade’s 10-15 expectations but 2.2 short of needed pace
ENERGY
· The energies are higher: QCLH14, +$0.24 at $100.30; QRBH, +$0.0167; QNGH, +$.-016 andQHOH, +$.0094
· Cash ethanol markets were again stronger on Monday: the Gulf gained 9; Dallas was up 3 ½; LA moved 6 higher; Dallas posted a 3 cent increase; NY and Chicago, each +4 ½ and Tampa, 3 higher
· RINs were firmer: 2012’s gained 1 to 52-53; 2013’s were 2 higher at 54-55; and 2014’s soared 7 ½ cents to 59-61
· The March RBOB/March ethanol spread tightened nearly 5 ½ cents to $.7378 per gallon on Monday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· After falling $9.72 over the previous three trading days, Choice boxed beef values gained 39-cents yesterday
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $140.62, down $4.72 from the week before
· The USDA pork carcass cutout firmed 37-cents yesterday and has increased $1.37 over the last three trading days
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price firmed 35-cents yesterday to $83.16
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather