HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Up 1; Soybeans, 6 Higher Old, 1 Lower New; Wheat, Steady to ½ Lower
· 2 of out of 3 Asian markets were higher overnight and the same applies to the start in Europe. The Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite gained .86% and 1.08% respectively; the Nikkei closed down .85%. The FTSE is a ½% weaker; both the DAX and CAC-40 are .15-.16% higher. Drivers include more European monetary stimulus; May’s U.S. job #’s; solid QI growth from Japan and rising exports from China. That being said, U.S. futures are all weaker—Dow, off 20; S&P, -3.75 and the NAS, -6. Energy futures are mixed; gold is a $1 higher at $1,254.60 and the $ Index is up .163 at 80.94
· T-Storm Weather: Waves of energy trigger areas of thunderstorms across the central U.S. through 10-14 days. Widespread coverage of near- and above-average rainfall occurs, eventually leading to pockets of excessive wetness, though pinpointing the exact timing, location, and coverage of rainfall at any specific point is untenable given the limitations of computer modeling. Although only around 5% of U.S. corn, soybean, and spring wheat production are excessively wet, future rains increase wetness since only around 4%, 3%, and 25% were drier than average over the last 30 days
· July Corn Up $.0125 at $4.5225; September Up $.0050 at $4.48. The funds sold 15 K on Monday
· July Soybeans Up $.06 at $14.63; August Up $.0025 at $13.9475. The funds bought 4 K SB; sold 3 K SBM and bought 3 K SBO
· July Wheat Up $.0050 at $6.13; September Down $.0050 at $6.2425. Fund selling totaled 5 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: USDA pegs U.S. Good/Excellent corn condition ratings at 75% vs. 76% last week. Result was a 164mbu reduction in 2014 crop size to 13.854Bbu with a national average yield of 165.8bpa
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn emergence at 92% as of Sunday vs. 83% in 2013 and 90% for the 5-year average
· Export Inspections; Corn, 45.2mbu (44.0 needed) Milo, 2.7 (3.5) with China in for 2.3 million bushels
· ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet--13/14 carryout dn 19mbu to 1.229Bbu; 14/15 dn 183 million to 1.536Bbu
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Initial USDA Good/Excellent U.S. soybean condition ratings at 74% with crop size at a record 3.651Bbu
· USDA Crop Progress: U.S. soybean planting at 87% complete vs. 69% last year and 81% for the 2009-2013 average
· ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet--13/14 carryout unch at 101mbu; 14/15 up 71 million to 337mbu
· Export Inspections: Soybeans, 4.5mbu (4.0 needed)
· ATI Research: Initial USDA Good/Excellent U.S. spring wheat conditions at 71% with HRS crop size at 489mbu
· ATI Research: Updated HRS wheat balance sheet--13/14 carryout at 186mbu; 14/15 at 177mbu
ENERGY
· Futures are mixed: QCLN14, +$0.39 at $104.80; QRBN, +$0.045; QNGN, -$.027; and QHON, +$.0043
· Cash ethanol markets were weaker on Monday: Chicago up ¼; Gulf off 2 ½; Dallas slipped 4; New York was down 1 ¼; Tampa eased 3; and LA was a nickel lower at $2.56 per gallon
· RINs posted modest gains: 2012’s up 1 ½ at 44-46; 2013’s were ¾ higher at 45-47; and 2014’s climbed 1 to 44-45
· The July RBOB/July ethanol spread picked up $.0428/gallon on Monday, to $.8268
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· After falling $1.80 over the previous three trading days, Choice boxed beef values increased $1.07 yesterday
· The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $145.78, up $1.39 from the week before
· After gaining $2.93 Friday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value eased a penny Monday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained $3.39 yesterday to $113.50
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather