HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, Up 1-2; Soybeans, Down 5-6; Wheat, ½ to 2 Higher
· Overseas equities were listless to a little higher ahead of today’s US Nov jobs report with the consensus for at 180 K increase. Likely to cap further immediate gains was a 3.6% QIII US GDP growth rate; read, the Fed cuts back sooner rather than later. Asian markets ranged from a .8% gain for the Nikkei to a .4% decline in the Shanghai Composite. Europe is higher: FTSE & CAC-40 are up .4% and the DAX, .6% higher. Dow futures show a +57 start to the day; energies are mostly higher; the $ Index is up .069 at 80.31 and gold is off .4% at $1,227/oz.
· T-storm Weather: Intense and record-setting coldness affects wheat in the U.S. central and northern Plains through Saturday morning; patchy winterkill results within large swaths of Kansas and Nebraska where snowpack is lacking and minimums range from 0°F to -15°F; patchy winterkill occurs within 25% - 30% of the U.S. production belt. A major ice and snow storm affects key SRW wheat areas of the southern Corn Belt and Delta today, though it causes soil moisture to sharply improve/increase in and near Tennessee
· Dec Corn Up $.0225 at $4.25; Mar Corn Up $.0150 at $4.35. The funds sold 3 K on Thursday
· Jan SB Down $.06 at $13.22; Mar SB Down $.05 at $13.0675. Funds: even on SB and 2 K SBM along with 1 K SBO
· Dec Wheat Up $.0050 at $6.3850; Mar Up $.02 at $6.54. The funds sold another 3 K yesterday
CORN/SORGHUM
· ATI Research: Export sales of corn were 23.4mbu, which was well below the bottom end of the trade range off 33-37 but still more than twice the level needed to reach the annual USDA forecast. China bought 14.3mbu
· T-storm Weather: Heavy thunderstorms roll across key corn areas of Argentina Sunday-Monday to slow/stop planting as 1.00”-2.00” unfolds; delays to planting probably result in less planted corn given the lateness of the season
· Average trade guess for U.S. corn 13/14 carryout in Dec. 10 USDA WASDE report is 1.864Bbu vs. 1.887 in November
· Stronger indications that a significant decline in double-crop corn planting will be seen in Brazil in early 2014
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Export sales of soybeans were 42.7mbu (29.6 old-crop, 13.1 new-crop), which was within the range of trade expectations (33-44mbu). Unknown was the largest buyer of old-crop (9.7) while China bought 6.2 new-crop
· T-storm Weather: Nearly all soybean areas of South America receive above-average rain through at least mid-month
· Average guess for U.S. soybean 13/14 carryout in Dec. 10 USDA WASDE report is 153mbu vs. 170 in November
· ATI Research: Marketing year low for export sales of wheat at only 8.4mbu vs. the trade range of 17-18
· Average guess for U.S. all wheat 13/14 carryout in Dec. 10 USDA WASDE report is 547mbu vs. 565 in November
ENERGY
· Energy markets—mostly higher except QCLF14,-$0.18 at $97.20; QRBF, +$0.0149; QNGF, +$.007 and QHOF, +$.0089
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago gained 3; Gulf was up a nickel; Dallas and Tampa were both down 2; New York soared an additional 24; and LA declined 1 ½ to $2.56 per gallon
· RINs higher: 2012’s gained 3 ¼ to 34-37; 2013’s up 3 ½ to 35-38; & 2014’s were also 3 ½ higher at 36-39
· The January RBOB/January ethanol spread was quoted at $.8227 per gallon yesterday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY ;
· Choice boxed beef values fell 89-cents yesterday and are off 14-cents from a week earlier
· Plains cash cattle traded yesterday at $132, steady with last week
· After falling $2.14 during the previous two days, the USDA pork carcass cutout value firmed 16-cents yesterday
· The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price fell $1.08 yesterday to $77.70
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather