Market Trend—Corn, steady to Up 1; Soybeans, 3 to 5 lower; Wheat, 1-2 firmer   

·         World stocks are modestly higher today as worries over an ongoing Federal Reserve meeting ease.  The fed will end its meeting today and is widely expected to announce a reduction in its massive bond-buying program.  Stock markets are hoping for a small reduction because the program has kept interest rates very low, making it cheaper to borrow money.  Dow futures are up 0.1%, S&P also up 0.1% and the Nasdaq is 2.25 weaker.  In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei index up 1.4% while Hong Kong’ Hang Seng was closed for a public holiday.  In Europe, the FTSE 100 index of leading British shares was up 0.2% while Germany’s DAX 0.3% stronger.  The U.S. dollar index is down 0.014 on the December contract to 81.124 while energy complex is mixed     

·         NWS to release update temperature & precipitation forecasts for the month of October on Thursday at 7:30 AM CDT.  T-storm Weather forecast: Temps fluctuate over the next five days, thereby triggering areas of rain and thunderstorms; best chances are Thursday in western corn and soybean areas, and across most corn and soybeans Thursday-Friday.  A mild to unseasonably mild pattern gradually follows and dominates next week.  The best chance for rain holds until around Sept. 26-27as energy rides the edge of warmth.  The end result is that conditions for corn and soybean harvesting & wheat planting improve after rain this week

·         Dec Corn Up $.0050 at $4.545; Mar Corn Up $.0050 at $4.67

·         Nov Soybeans Down$.0475 at $13.3775; Jan SB Off $.0525 at $13.3775

·         Dec Wheat, Up $.0125 at $6.4425; Mar Wheat Up $.0225 at $6.5575

CORN/SORGHUM

·         T-storm Weather: Widespread rain of 0.75”-1.50” affects Midwest corn producing areas Thursday-Friday

·         Corn dent for week ending Sept. 22 likely to be 87-92%, which is below last year’s 99% and the average of 93%

·         Corn mature for week ending Sept. 22 likely to be 35-40%, which is well below last year’s 86% and the average of 58%

·         Corn harvest for week ending Sept. 22 likely to be 5-10%, which is well below last year’s 37% and the average of 16%

·         ATI Research: U.S. corn export sales past 4 weeks averaged 21mbu, which is triple the level of 2012 but about 14.5mbu below the 5-year avg. as the program continues to suffer under ample S American & Black Sea competition 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Soybeans dropping leaves for week end Sept. 22 likely to be 45-50%--well behind last year’s 71% and the 56% avg.

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean export sales past 4 weeks averaged 42mbu, which represents a 15mbu increase over a year ago and 10 million or a 30% increase compared to the 5-year average

·         Winter wheat planting for week end Sept. 22 likely to be 23-28%, which is near last year’s 23% and the 24% avg.

·         ATI Research: U.S. all wheat export sales past 4 weeks were 83mbu, which is up 19% vs. 2012 but 15 million below the 5-year average as competition from EU and FSU supplies begins to take hold

ENERGY

·         Energy markets are mixed: QCLV13, up $0.58 to $106.00; QRBV, +.0053; QNGV,-$.023 and QHOV, -$.0082

·         EIA estimates (API in parenthesis):  crude, down 1.2 mb (-0.3); gasoline, up 400 K (-0.6); distillates, up 0.7 (-0.2)

·         Spot ethanol prices were mixed: NY was reported penny higher; the Gulf fell 6 ½ and Chicago prices were up an average of 3 cents.  Dallas and LA were 11 and 10 lower, respectively; Tampa was 14 ½ lower

·         RINs: 2012’s were down 5 ½  at 47-56 ½ cents; 2013’s were 5 ½ lower at 49-57 ½; 2014’s fell 5 ½ to a 49-58 ½ range

·         The Oct RBOB/ethanol spread weakened to $.8561

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;             

·   &n​bsp;     Choice boxed beef values eased a penny yesterday and are down 72-cents from a week earlier

·         Cash cattle markets are quiet with feedyards asking $125 while packers bid $121.  Cattle traded LW at mostly $123

·         After falling 93-cents Monday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value rebounded $1.96 yesterday

·         The USDA’s Iowa/Minnesota average cash lean hog price gained 99-cents yesterday to $97.23

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

Phil Gore

mailto:pgore@advance-trading.com

www.advance-trading.com