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Market Trend Corn, Steady to 1 Lower, Soybeans, Down 5, Wheat, Down 7 to 11

December 4, 2014 07:08 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Steady to 1 Lower; Soybeans, Down 5; Wheat, Down 7-11

·         Japanese political optimism, hopes for more economic stimulus in China boost Asian equities; similar hopes noted in Europe but no major announcements expected soon.  Nikkei, +.94%; Shanghai, +4.35% & the Hang Seng, +1.72%.  Early trade finds Europe from .07% (FTSE) to .52% (DAX) higher.  Pre-market indications for the U.S. are positive:  DOW, +18; NAS, +7; S&P, +1.75.  Externals:  $ Index, +.03; gold, down $6 with energies vacillating

·         T-storm Weather: Cool fronts trigger thunderstorms to keep most grain and oilseed areas of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay moist through at least 10 days.  Other than a short-duration heat wave that began yesterday in Argentina and briefly flashes at times next week, the most notable issues remain that: 1) pockets of excessive wetness may develop in parts of Center-West and Southeast Brazil, while 2) a mix of helpful and unhelpful thunderstorms continue for corn / soybean planting and wheat harvesting in Argentina

·         Dec Corn unch at $3.6875; March Down $.0050 at $3.8150. Deliveries: 40; etoh, 8.  funds were even in mid-week trade

·         Jan SB Down $.05 at $9.9325; March Down $.05 at $10.0025.  Del’y:  SBO, 188.  Funds: sold 6 K SB; 5 K SBM, and bought 5 K SBO

·         Dec Wheat Down $.07 at $5.90; March Down $.10 at $5.7950.  Del’y: 188 KW.  The funds sold 6 K Wednesday

CORN/SORGHUM                             &nb​sp;                       &nbs​p;                                 

·       &nbs​p; Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 24 to 31 mbu corn 

·         Ethanol grind: 962,000 barrels per day for week end Nov. 28—down 20 thou vs. last week but up 5.4% vs. last year 

·         T-storm Weather: Above-average rainfall of 2.50”-5.00” is probable through 10 days across Center-West and Southeast Brazil, thereby keeping vegetative corn moist to wet; dryness will not be an issue into at least late-month

·         March 2015 corn futures closed at $3.82 on Wed.—one year ago, the March 2014 corn contract settled at $4.31 ¼

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects soybeans, 24 to 31 mbu; soymeal, -50-60; soyoil, 10-30

·         T-storm Weather: A period of drying is underway for soybeans across Argentina accompanied by a short-duration heat wave through Saturday.  The dry period ends Saturday-Sunday with scattered 0.67”-1.33” rain amounts likely

·         January 2015 soybean futures closed at $9.98 ¼ Wed.—one year ago, January 2014 soybean contract settled $13.19 ¾

·         Export Sales to be released at 7:30 AM CST.  Trade expects 11-18 mbu for all wheat

·         T-storm Weather: Coverage of agricultural drought increasing for U.S. HRW wheat; 34% drier than usual last 90 days

ENERGY

·         Futures are mixed:    QCLF14, -$0.04 at $67.34; QRBF, +$0.0002; QNGF, -$.024; and QHOF, -$.0049

·         Cash ethanol markets rebounded a bit on Wednesday: Chicago up 8 ½; Gulf, Dallas and Tampa all added 1 ½; New York gained 4 ½; and LA was 2 higher at $2.48 per gallon

·         Slightly weaker trend in RINs: 2013’s off ½ to 59-60; 2014’s down ½ to 59 ½-60 ½; and 2015’s eased ½ to 59-60 ½

·         January RBOB/January ethanol now at a $.0670/gallon, premium to gasoline

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                    ​;                        ​               ​

·         Choice boxed beef values gained 5-cents on Wednesday but are 72-cents lower vs. a week ago

·         December live cattle futures traded to $165.825 on Wednesday—the lowest price for the contract since Nov. 7, 2014

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value decreased 5-cents Wed., is 37-cents below last week and at lowest level since Feb. 10

·         CME Lean Hog Index up $0.19 at $88.64.  December futures down $1.45 to $88.05 & are $0.59 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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