HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend—Corn, Steady to 1 Higher; Soybeans, Mixed; Wheat, 1-2 Lower

·         Asia closed higher in pre-Christmas trading with both the Nikkei and Shanghai up .12-.15% while the Hang Seng gained 1.13%.  Stress in China’s financial system appears to be easing, short term interest costs are on the decline. In Europe the DAX is closed after ending .94% higher on Monday; both the FTSE and CAC-40 are up .3-.4% ahead of an early close.  Yesterday’s close on the Dow at 16,295 marked the 48^th new high this year.  Futures have the Dow up 8; the S&P ¼ higher with the Nasdaq down 1. Outside markets:  gold, up $1.70; crude is a quarter higher and the $ Index, up .053 at 80.67 on the March contract

·         T-storm Weather: Widespread heat continues over the next week in Argentina.  Mainly dry weather also occurs in much of Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay into the weekend, but a few thunderstorm develop in southern Brazil and Paraguay within Friday-Sunday as instability increases.  A more important system likely follows within Tuesday-Thursday (Dec. 31 – Jan. 2) as a system at least temporarily breaks the heat wave and triggers thunderstorms, which is the main reason that we are forecasting rainfall.  Coverage and amounts are difficult to assess, but 0.75” – 1.50” amounts appear reasonable

·         Mar Corn Up $.0025 at $4.3450; May Up $.0025 at $4.4275.  The funds began the week buying 2 K

·         Jan SB Up $.0075 at $13.2925; Mar SB Down $.0025 at $13.1950.  The funds sell 4 K SB, 2 K SBM and are even on SBO

·         Mar Wheat Down $.0150 at $6.08; May Down $.0175 at $6.15.  Funds were even yesterday      

CORN/SORGHUM

·         March 2014 corn futures closed Monday at $4.34 ¼.  By comparison, the March 2013 corn contract closed at $7.00 ½ on this date a year ago

• ATI Research: 13/14 corn carryout up 65mbu vs. last week to 1.846Bbu; 14/15 up a like amount to 2.125Bbu 
• T-storm Weather: Nearly all key corn producing locations in Argentina were drier than average since December 1, including many that have deficits of around 2.00”

·         Export Inspections; Corn, 35.9mbu (28.5 needed), China took 8.0.  Milo, 0.2 (4.0) with China in for 106 thou bushels

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: 13/14 soybean carryout is unchanged from last week at 113mbu with 14/15 also stable at 353mbu

·         T-storm Weather:  Heavy thunderstorms focus on northern areas of Center-West and Southeast Brazil (and Bahia) over the next week; wet to excessively wet conditions for soybean development continue

• Export Inspections: Soybeans, 55.3mbu (18.2 needed) with China taking 43.1
• T-storm Weather: Heavy precipitation over the last few days reduced the proportion of U.S. HRW wheat production that is too dry to 18%--primarily due to significant improvements in Oklahoma and Texas
• ATI Research: 13/14 HRW wheat carryout unchanged vs. last week to 174mbu with 14/15 pegged at 213mbu
• Export Inspections: Wheat, 19.5mbu (16.7 needed); nothing to China 

ENERGY

·         Energy markets lean firmer: QCLG14,+$0.28 at $99.19; QRBG, +$0.0049; QNGG, -$.009 andQHOG, +$.0115

·         Cash ethanol markets posted varying gains on Monday: Chicago and Gulf each gained a penny; Dallas and Tampa moved up 7 ½ cents; New York was 1 ½ cents higher while LA rose a nickel to $2.60/gallon

·         RINs were steady: 2012’s unch: 29 ½-30; 2013’s remained 30-31; & 2014’s held at 30 ½-31 ½

·         The January RBOB/January ethanol spread edged in ¾ of a cent to $.8633/gallon yesterday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                                      &​nbsp;                    

• Choice boxed beef values eased 10-cents yesterday and have declined $3.28 over the last five trading days
• The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was $130.48, down 13-cents from the week before
• The USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value fell 31-cents yesterday and has lost $5.60 over the last five days
• Total Nov. 30 pork stocks in USDA Cold Storage report of 546.3 million pounds are modestly below pre-report estimates for around 549.2 million pounds, but are within the range of estimates

 

 

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather