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Market Trend Corn, Steady to 1 Higher, Soybeans, 4 Lower, Wheat, 1 Higher.

December 24, 2014 07:16 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Steady to ½ Higher; Soybeans, 4 Lower; Wheat, 1+ Higher.  French wheat, Up 6 ½; Corn, Up 12 ½ 

·         China’s Financial institutions/brokerage houses not in favor; sharp sell-off pulling Shanghai down nearly 2%; the Hang Seng was little changed, +.07% and the Nikkei rose 1.24% overnight.  Europe has something for everyone:  the DAX is steady; the FTSE is up a modest .07% and the CAC 40 is off .37%. Wall Street suggests a few more presents under the tree in what figures to be a light trading day, closing at noon, CST:  DOW futures are +14; the S&P, +1.25 and the NAS, 3.50.  Jobless claims out at this am.  Externals:  $ Index, 90.215, off .111; energy futures are weaker and gold is up $1.40 at $1,179.30

·         T-storm Weather: Widely scattered thunderstorms continue through today across Center-West and Southeast Brazil, then diminish as upper-level high pressure keeps the region mainly dry and very warm to hot for around one week. The setup forces the jet stream to flow from Argentina into South Brazil from Friday forward, causing numerous thunderstorms to form & coolness to break.  Widespread coverage of near- and above-average rainfall occurs (1.00” – 3.00” amounts), and excessive rainfall cannot be ruled out – especially from eastern Argentina into Rio Grande do Sul where up to 5.00” is plausible over the next 10 days

·         Mar Corn Up $.0050 at $4.1450; May Steady at $4.2250.  The funds bought 5 K on Tuesday

·         Jan SB Down $.04 at $10.3450; March Down $.0425 at $10.4150.  Funds: even on SB; bought 2 K SBM; bought 3 K SBO

·         Mar Up $.0150 at $6.37; May Up $.0050 at $6.39.  The funds bought 5 K yesterday

 

 

CORN/SORGHUM                             &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                                 

·       &nb​sp; ATI Research: Balance of the year (January-August) U.S. corn exports to Mexico could reach record levels

·         T-storm Weather: Notably drier & warmer period forecast for Center-West & Southeast Brazil for at least one week

·         Private crop consultant: Argentina corn planting at-60% vs. 68% last year and 78% average; drying noted in south

·         Ethanol margins: $0.68 per gallon vs. $0.58 a week ago and below $0.88 last year.  EIA report at9:30 AM CST

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Private crop consultant: Weather in Brazil continues to be generally favorable for soybean crop development

·         T-storm Weather: Numerous rounds of heavy thunderstorm clusters occur within Dec. 26-Jan. 2across Argentina and nearby areas of southern Brazil and Paraguay from Friday forward.  Amounts of 1.00”-3.00” are forecast

·         There continues to be uncertainty in the market with regard to the timing and amount of a duty on wheat exports by Russia

·         T-storm Weather: Snowpack lacking in U.S. Central/Southern Plains; HRW wheat exposed to winterkill if cold develops

ENERGY

·         Futures are lower: QCLG15, -$0.90 at $56.21; QRBG, -$0.0248; QNGG, -$.023; and QHOG, -$.0263

·         EIA estimates:  crude, -1.8 (API: +5.4); Gasoline, +0.4 (+5.5); Distillates, -0.9 (+1.1)

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Tuesday: Chicago down ½; Gulf steady; Dallas up 3; New York eased 1 ½; Tampa gained 3 ½; and LA was ½ higher at $1.76 ½ per gallon

·         RINs were higher: 2013’s up 3 ½ to 70-71 ½; 2014’s gained 2 ¾ to 70-72; and 2015’s climbed 3 to 70-72

·         The inverse in the January RBOB/ethanol spread lost 3 1/3rd cents and is now at -$.0386/gallon, premium ethanol

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                           &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;       

· &n​bsp;       Choice boxed beef values increased $3.24 on Tuesday but are 28-cents lower vs. a week ago

·         USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report pegs December 1 breeding herd up 3.7% vs. last year and largest since 2008

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value declined $1.25 Tues., is $2.28 below last week & at lowest level since Jan. 22, 2014

·         CME Lean Hog Index down 99-cents at $81.55.  February futures up $1.40 to $81.65 & are 10-cents above the index  

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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