Market Trend Corn, Steady, Soybeans, Up 1 to 2, Wheat, Down 3 to 4
February 19, 2015 07:13 AM
HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend: Corn, Steady; Soybeans, Up 1-2; Wheat, Down 3-4
· Stocks are mixed amid a renewed slide in oil prices and uncertainty regarding negotiations over the future of Greece’s bailout. Asian markets were firmer with the Nikkei up 0.36% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng gaining 0.19%. In contrast, European markets are mixed at midday with the FTSE posting slight gains but the DAX edging lower. Equities in Europe this week had reached the highest level since late 2007. In the U.S. stocks are also mixed: DOW, off 5; NAS, +2 and the S&P, down 1. Outside markets are seeing crude sharply lower trending toward $50; the $ Index is .043 higher at 94.300 and gold is firmer at $1,217.90.
· T-storm Weather: Scattered thunderstorms focus on / adjacent Center-West and South Brazil through Friday-Saturday, limiting harvesting and planting; 1.50" to 3.00" amounts most common. Several days of sharp drying follow as upper-level high pressure quickly expands, aiding harvesting and planting. Thereafter, thunderstorms gradually return as cool fronts shift northward and disrupt the upper-level high, resulting in seasonably-scattered thunderstorms from around next Wednesday-Thursday forward. In Argentina, a one-week period of dry and generally cool weather aid corn and soybean filling
· Mar Corn Unchanged at $3.8375; May Unchanged at $3.92. The funds sold 8 K on Wednesday
· Mar SB Up $.01 at $9.9675; May Up $.01 at $10.0025. Funds sold 7 K SB; 5 K SBM and 3 K SBO
· Mar Wheat Down $.035 at $5.2425; May Down $0.0375 at $5.20. Funds sold 6 K on Wednesday
CORN/SORGHUM      
· ; ATI Research: At this point, the USDA’s 1.75 bbu U.S. corn export forecast looks reasonable and would appear to be supported by uncharacteristically strong build-up in unshipped sales since early November
· T-storm Weather: Mainly dry weather is forecast for Argentina over the next seven days as cool surface-level high pressure dominates. Maximums only reach the 70s-80s through much of the period, aiding corn filling
· Private crop consultant: Double-crop corn planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil is 23% planted compared to 46% last year
· Ethanol margins: $0.23 per gallon vs. $0.26 a week ago and below $0.62 last year. EIA report at10:00 AM CST
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· ATI Research: Soybean export forecast for 2014/15 is 1.78 bbu, which is 10 million greater than the USDA
· Private crop consultant: Weather in Argentina continues to be beneficial for soybeans; crop est up 1.0 MMT to 57.0
· T-storm Weather: Highest rain amounts this week in Brazil occur in Goias and Mato Grosso, slowing soybean harvest
· ATI Research: Room for further decreases in U.S. HRW wheat export forecast is sales/shipments remain sluggish
· Struggles of U.S. wheat exports highlighted this week by Egypt cancelling a tender to buy U.S. wheat citing high prices
ENERGY
· Futures are mixed: QCLH15, -$1.83 at $50.31; QRBH, +0.029; QNGH, +$.039; and QHOH, -$.0185
· EIA estimates: crude, +3.7 (API: +14.3); Gasoline, +0.5 (+1.3); Distillates, -2.0 (-2.7)
· A steady to mostly lower trend was seen in cash ethanol markets on Wednesday: Chicago off ¾; New York down ½; Gulf and Dallas eased 1; Tampa was steady; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $1.57 ½ per gallon
· RINs steady to lower: 2013’s unchanged at 71-72; 2014’s down ½ at 71 ½-72 ½; and 2015’s off 3/8 at 71-71 ¾
· The Mar RBOB/Mar Ethanol spread has narrowed .018 to $.1006/gallon on Thursday
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
·  Choice boxed beef values were 66-cents higher on Wednesday and are up 4-cents vs. a week ago
· Cattle on Feed estimates: On-feed, 100.0% (range 99.4-100.4); placed, 86.3% (83.0-91.8); marketed, 91.2% (90.6-93.9)
· On Wednesday, the USDA mandatory pork carcass cutout value gained 28- cents but is down 33-cents vs. last week
· CME Lean Hog Index $0.49 lower to $60.93. April futures up $0.225 to $64.225 and is $3.295 above the index
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