HIGHLIGHTS
· Market Trend—Corn, Mostly Steady; Soybeans, 2-3 Lower; Wheat, 3-4 Higher
· Stocks are sharply lower this morning amid a lack of progress by U.S. lawmakers in budget and debt ceiling talks. Trading remains relatively calm, suggesting confidence that a deal to end a partial government shutdown and raise the U.S. borrowing limit will emerge but continued uncertainty is limiting buying. European shares declines to a four-month low while global stocks as tracked by MSCI were 0.4% weaker. Dow futures are off by 129 points; the S&P is 15 lower; and the Nasdaq is 27 weaker. Gold is $6 higher, while oil is $1.14 lower. The dollar index is weaker at 80.065, down 0.155.
· T-storm Weather notes most of the major corn and soybean producing areas stay dry through at least Thursday-Friday, and temperatures quickly turn unseasonably warm for several days beginning Monday-Tuesday as maximums return to the 70s and 80s; conditions for harvesting gradually improve. Warming occurs in advance of a series of storm systems that exit the Rockies and move across the central U.S. from Friday-Saturday forward. The best overall chance for significant rainfall of 0.50”-1.00” is from western HRW wheat areas of the Central Plains northward through the Northern Plains on Friday-Saturday (including wettest areas of South Dakota). A low chance for significant rainfall exists further to the east within Sunday-Tuesday
· Dec Corn Down $.0025 at $4.43; Mar Corn Steady at $4.56.
· Nov Soybeans Down $.025 at $12.925; Jan SB Down $.03 at $12.92.
· Dec Wheat Up $.03 at $6.90; Mar Wheat Up $.0375 at $7.00.
CORN/SORGHUM
· Due to the partial Federal government shutdown, USDA reports including Export Inspections and Crop Progress will not be released today. It also appears unlikely that the WASDE & Crop Production reports will be released on Oct. 11
· Although USDA data will be unavailable, ATI Research estimates U.S. corn mature for week ending Oct. 6 to be 80-85%, which is well below last year’s 97% but near the avg. of 83%
· ATI Research estimates U.S. corn harvest for week ending Oct. 6 to be 20-25% vs. last year’s 67% & the avg. of 33%
· Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange last week lowered its 2013-14 Argentine corn area forecast by 250,000 acres to 8.5 million acres as a lack of soil moisture in northern and western areas is delaying planting
SOYBEANS/WHEAT
· Although USDA data will be unavailable, ATI Research estimates U.S. soybeans dropping leaves for week end Oct. 6 to be 80-85%--behind last year’s 92% but near the 86% avg.
· ATI Research estimates U.S. soybean harvest for week end Oct. 6 to be 25-30% vs. last year’s 54% & the avg. of 40%
· Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange last week forecasted corn planted area will fall 6% in 2013-14 amid a switch to soybeans, which do not carry the same export restrictions as corn and better retain value
· ATI Research estimates U.S. winter wheat planting for week end Oct. 6 at 55-60% vs. last year’s 55% & the 57% avg.
· T-storm Weather: Rain chances increase over Oct. 11-15, especially for U>S. HRW wheat
ENERGY
· Energy markets are mixed: QCLX13, -$0.96 to $102.88; QRBX, -0.0190; QNGX, +$.040 and QHOX, -$.0193
· Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Friday: Chicago and Gulf were up 9 cents; NY 3 ½ higher; Dallas was 4 lower; and Tampa was also down 4 cents at $2.17 ½ per gallon
· RINs, lower: 2012’s up 2 ½ cents to 38-40; 2013’s 2 ¾ higher to 39-41 and 2014’s firmer by 2 to 40-41
LIVESTOCK/POULTRY    
· October live cattle futures ended at $128.05 on Friday, the highest close since Sept. 27
· Hog futures rebounded for a 3rd day Friday to end at the highest level since Sept. 30
· USDA cash livestock and meat values are not available due to the government shutdown
Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather
Brian Basting
mail to: bbasting@advance-trading.com
http://www.advance-trading.com