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Market Trend Corn, Mixed, Soybeans, Down 2, Wheat, Down 2 to 3

January 9, 2015 07:07 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, Mixed; Soybeans, Down 2;   Wheat, Down 2-3

·         Asia closed out the week mostly higher, basking in Wall Street’s strong day and bolstered by reduced oil price volatility.  The Nikkei gained .18%; the Hang Seng finished up .35%; the Kospi was 1.05% higher with only Shanghai losing, off .18%.  Europe is taking a pause as weakness in the banking sector has the major bourses .4% to .5% lower.  December U.S. non-farm payrolls will be Wall Street’s focus this morning with 240 K expected and unemployment pegged .1% lower to 5.7%.  Futures point to a weaker start:  DOW, -43; S&P, -4.5 and the NAS, 5 lower.  Outside markets:  $ Index off .227 at 92.375; gold is $1.90 higher at $1,210.30 and energy futures are mostly weaker

·         T-storm Weather: A stagnant area of upper-level high pressure suppresses rainfall & induces warmth across and adjacent Center-West and Southeast Brazil over the next 10 days.  Widespread and heavy rain would be ideal for corn and soybeans in this region because many locations received little to no rainfall over the last 14 days, leading to departures of -3.50” to -5.50” for the period.  The setup also causes a parade of systems to trigger heavy thunderstorms in varying areas of central / northern Argentina and South Brazil through the period.  The eventual demise of this pattern is difficult to assess, but unlikely through 10 days

·         Mar Corn Up $.0025 at $3.9450; May Down $.0025 at $4.0250.  Del’y:  0 ethanol.  The funds sold 3 K on Thursday

·         Jan SB Down $.0250 at $10.4250; May Steady at $10.4825.   Del’y: SB, 20; SBO, 103.  Funds: sold 3 K SB; 4 K SBM; bought 4 K SBO

·         Mar Wheat Down $.0250 at $5.6450; May Down $.0375 at $5.6825.  The funds sold 5 K duringThursday’s session

CORN/SORGHUM                            ​                        &​nbsp;                        &​nbsp;         

·      &​nbsp;  Outstanding U.S. corn export sales as of Jan. 1: 580 mbu vs. 659 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 446 mil

·         Outstanding U.S. sorghum export sales as of Jan. 1: 133 mbu vs. 77 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 32 mil

·         Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2014 U.S. corn production is 14.366 Bbu vs. 14.407 in November

·         T-storm Weather: Rain is unneeded from Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil westward into Argentina where departures of +3.00 to +6.00” exist 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         Outstanding U.S. soybean export sales as of Jan. 1: 498 mbu vs. 578 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 443 mil

·         Jan. 12 USDA WASDE report: Avg. trade guess for 2014 U.S. soybean production is 3.965 Bbu vs. 3.958 in November

·         T-storm Weather: The lack of rain across Center-West and Southeast Brazil over the last two weeks is probable to turn into a three- to four-week period 

·         Outstanding U.S. wheat export sales as of Jan. 1: 179 mbu vs. 189 mil last year and the 5-year avg. of 201 mil

·         T-storm Weather: Minimum temperatures fell below zero Thursday morning across much of the U.S. Corn Belt, but mainly to the north of snow-free SRW wheat; significant winterkill did not occur

ENERGY

·         Futures are generally lower: QCLG15, -$0.26 at $48.53; QRBG, -$0.0017; QNGG, +$.027; andQHOG, -$.0049

·         Cash ethanol markets were mixed on Thursday: Chicago eased 1; New York down 2; Gulf declined 2 ½; Tampa up 7; Dallas jumped 8; and LA was 6 higher at $1.65 ½ per gallon

·         RINs down sharply: 2013’s slid 6 ¾ to 75 ½-76; 2014’s declined 7 ½ to 75-77; and 2015’s slipped 7 to 74-78

·         The Feb RBOB/Feb Ethanol spread lost about a penny as the inverse slipped to -$.1231 per gallon 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                          &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;        

·&n​bsp;        Choice boxed beef values on Thursday were $1.82 higher compared to Wednesday

·         Dressed steer weights for latest week were 897 pounds—up vs. 892 the prior week & 25 pounds heavier vs. last year

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value increased $1.08 on Thursday, but is still down 69-cents compared to Dec. 31

·         CME Lean Hog Index 11-cents lower at $77.61.  February futures down $1.15 to $78.175 and $0.565 above the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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