HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:  Corn, Mixed; Soybeans, 8 Higher;  Wheat, 2 Lower

·         Asia started the day mixed:  Shanghai gained .8%; the Hang Seng was steady & the Nikkei lost .24%; Europe shows a similar pattern with both the FTSE & CAC .2% lower and the DAX, marginally higher.  U.S. futures point to a higher start with the Dow at +27; the S&P, +3 and the NAS, +5 ¾.  Gold is off $2.20; energy futures are mostly higher; the $ Index is +.024 at 80.235

·         Temperatures should average much warmer than usual the next 10-14 days due to a dominating upper-level.  The warmer trend will generate some thunder-storm activity through tomorrow from Nebraska eastward through the Corn Belt, bringing unneeded rainfall to some areas – most notably southern Wisconsin and Ohio where planting corn and soybean planting are behind average.  Heavy rain affects much of the Plains within Friday-Monday, alleviating some drought conditions in the southwest Plains but while bringing additional and unneeded rainfall to parts of the northern Plains around Sunday. This system will move across the Corn Belt and Delta next week and likely resulting in seasonably-heavy rainfall of around 1.00” for these areas.

·         July Corn Up $.0025 at $4.7375; September Down $.0025 at $4.72.   Fund selling amounted to another 6 K on Tuesday

·         July Soybeans Up $.08 at $14.7775; August Up $.0650 at $14.1175.  Funds:  even on SB; sold 1 K SBM and 4 K SBO

·         July Wheat Down $.02 at $6.6850; September Down $.0250 at $6.78.  The funds sold 2 K yesterday

CORN/SORGHUM

·         ATI Research:  c/o raised 12 mbu to 1.267, reflecting recent pace of ethanol grind.  USDA May # was 1.146; difference due mostly to being 100 mbu apart on exports.  ATI bias is 40 or so higher on feed/residual; +40-50 ethanol grind

·         Crop years with similar price declines have seen the producer hold as much as 23% crop in the summer (09/10); will quality concerns generate more than the usual amount of sales ahead of pollination?

·         China to sell up to 3 MMT of reserves next week; active buying would likely preclude any more 13/14 U.S. imports

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: soybean carry-out declines 10 mbu to 106 on 25 higher crush/15 mbu boost in imports

·         ATI Research:  wheat ending stocks estimate maintained at 585 (USDA: 583)

·         Heat/dryness raising concerns in the Volga Valley for the Russian wheat crop

·         Early summer U.S. wheat export program expected at 20-25/week, down slightly from 27.6 a year ago

·         It’s early, but trade making some note new crop SB sales to China at 3 year low, down nearly 100 mbu from LY

·         Talk harvest delays in Argentina, taking toll on yields.  Remaining Pampas area said to twice normal size

ENERGY

·         Futures are mostly higher:  QCLN14, +$0.75 at $103.88; QRBN, +$0.0096; QNGN, -$.025; and QHON, +$.0070

·         Cash ethanol markets were sharply lower:  the Gulf was down 7; Chicago lost 5 ½ cents to $2.25 ½; NY, Dallas and Tampa were all 5 ½ lower with LA easing a more modest 1 ¾ cents

·         EIA Estimates (API): Crude, +.700 mb (-10.3 Mb); Gasoline, +.100 mb (+.135 Mb); Distillates, +.200 mb (+1.4 Mb)

·         RINs were lower: 2012’s slipped 1 to 47-48 cents; 2013’s were off nearly 1 ½ to 47 ½-49; 2014’s lost 1 ¼ to 46 ½-48 ½

·         The July RBOB/July ethanol spread rose $.0111 to $.8260/gallon on Tuesday

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                        &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;          

• Choice boxed beef values gained $3.01 to $230.23 Tuesday ; Selects were  $1.49 at $219.03
• Estimated pork packer margins for vertically integrated plants rose $5.80 to $56.01 per head on Tuesday
• Live cattle closed slightly lower after a volatile day of trading on light volume; Feeder cattle ended trading 27 to 32 cents weaker although much of the session saw active buying interest
• Lean hogs ended with the near-bys lower on ideas early summer demand may be constrained by high prices

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather