HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend: Corn, Down 5; Soybeans, up ½ to 1; Wheat, Down 6-8+

·         Attila the Hun (no offense to the original) orders Russian troops back to their bases—world stocks breathe a sigh of relief, rebound. Nikkei gains .5%; Hang Seng moves up .5%; the Shanghai Composite continues its downward trend, off .2%. European markets respond very positively with the DAX up 2.24%; the CAC 40 is 2.33% to the plus side and the FTSE is up 1.68%: Wall Street set to start significantly higher: Dow futures, up 168; S&P, 19 ½ higher; Nasdaq, +42. But volatility is expected to continue with some suggesting the faint of heart remain on the sidelines. Energies are mostly weaker; there is some flight from safety with gold down 1% while the $ Index is .115 lower at 79.975

·         T-storm Weather: Cool fronts sweep across Brazil and trigger thunderstorms over the next 10 days; near- and above-average rainfall occurs with highest coverage and amounts across Center-West Brazil. Upcoming rain keeps parts of Mato Grosso wetter than ideal for first-crop harvesting and second-crop corn development, but generally keeps other areas neither too dry nor too wet. Argentina stays cool to aid filling soybeans. In the U.S., the extremely cold pattern ends shortly, but remains colder than average across the northern Plains and Corn Belt through at least mid-month

·         Mar Corn Down $.0550 at $4.5850; May Down $.0475 at $4.6575. The funds bought 15 K on Russian/Ukraine uncertainties

·         Mar SB Up $.0075 at $14.08; May Up $.0150 at $14.1075. Funds sold 3 K SB; 5 K SBM and bought 5 K SBO yesterday

·         Mar Wheat, NA; May Wheat Down $.0825 at $6.2350. And, also purchased 15 K of wheat on Monday

·         Deliveries: 304 Corn; 94 SB; 1 SBM and 711 SBO

 

 

CORN/SORGHUM

·         ATI Research: 13/14 corn carryout down 26mbu vs. last week to 1.473Bbu; 14/15 down 75 million to 1.757Bbu

·         ATI Research: Current 4-week export sales average a very respectable 44.3mbu—3rd best of the past 20 years

·         Export Inspections; Corn, 41.1mbu (34.3 needed), China took less than 5 thou bu. Milo, 3.1 (3.6) with China in for 2.4

·         Private crop consultant boosts Argentina corn crop estimate by 0.5 mmt to 23.0 MMT (USDA at 24.0)

 

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: 13/14 soybean carryout down 25mbu vs. last week at 111mbu; 14/15 down like amount to 199mbu

·         Export Inspections: Soybeans, 36.1mbu (6.0 needed) with China taking 22.6

·         Private consultant lowers Brazil soybean crop estimate by 1.5 MMT to 87.0 MMT (USDA at 90.0)

·         ATI Research: 13/14 SRW wheat carryout unchanged vs. last week at 112mbu; 14/15 also unchanged at 151mbu

·         Export Inspections: Wheat, 22.4mbu (22.7 needed)

·         Slight deterioration in monthly USDA wheat ratings: Kansas, 34% Good/Excellent vs. 35%; Oklahoma, 31% vs. 36%

 

ENERGY

·         Turn-around Tuesday, sort of? QCLJ14, -$1.47 at $103.46; QRBJ, -$0.0442; QNGJ, +$.033 and QHOJ, +$.0506

·         Cash ethanol markets were higher to start the week: Chicago gained 1 ¼; Gulf firmed 11; NY climbed 4 ½; Tampa advanced 7 ½; Dallas up 6 ½; and LA prices bumped up a nickel to $3.22 per gallon

·         Rebound in RINs: 2012’s up 3 ½ to 49-50; 2013’s gained 4 ½ to 50-53; and 2014’s were 5 ½ higher to 47-50

·         The April RBOB/March ethanol spread exploded over 23 cents on Monday, closing at $.7303/gallon

 

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY

·         Choice boxed beef values increased $3.79 yesterday and have gained $15.37 over the last six trading days.

·         The USDA 5-area weekly average steer price for last week was a record high $150.61, up $5.07 from the week before

·         The USDA pork carcass cutout value gained $1.03 yesterday and has increased $11.13 over the last eight trading days

·         April hog futures closed yesterday at a new record high for the nearby contract of $108.675. The previous record was $107.47 from August 2011