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Market Trend Corn, Down 5, Soybeans, Down 9 to 10, Wheat, 3 to 5 Lower.

November 4, 2014 07:11 AM

HIGHLIGHTS

·         Market Trend:   Corn, Down 5; Soybeans, Down 9-10; Wheat, 3-5 Lower.   Europe:  Wheat, -10;  Corn, - 5 ½                    

·   &n​bsp;     BOJ stimulus program continues to boost Nikkei, up 2.73% overnight; Shanghai little changed, +.03%; Hang Seng loses .29%.  EU Commission backs down this year’s growth forecast from 1.2% to .8%; trims/slashes 2015 outlook 1/3rd to 1.1%--Soviet and Mid-East tensions plus, there is a dearth of capital investment taking place in Europe at the present.  DAX, +.06%; FTSE, -.12%; CAC-40, -.19% in early Tuesday trade. It’s election day in the U.S.; markets don’t look terribly enthusiastic—DOW futures, -24; S&P, -4.50 and the NAS, -7.30.  Oil looks headed for $75/barrel; gold is a bit firmer, up $1.60 and the $ Index is off .147 at 87.45

·         Weather: Dry weather is forecast for the western Corn Belt today.  In contrast, scattered light showers are projected for the   eastern Corn Belt with most amounts 0.25” or less.  Heaviest totals are forecast for the southern half of Illinois and far western Indiana.  Temperatures are projected to be above to much-above normal for the western Corn Belt today-Wednesday with above normal readings forecast for the east through tomorrow.  Mostly dry conditions are forecast for the western and eastern Corn Belt on Wednesday

·         Dec Corn Down $.05 at $3.6850; March Down $.0525 at $3.8075.  The funds sold an estimated 5 K on Monday

·         Nov SB Down $.0925 at $10.1950; Jan Down $.10 at $10.1975.    Funds: sold 7 K SB; 7 K SBM; 6 K SBO. No SB deliveries

·         Dec Wheat Down $.0375 at $5.3450; March Down $.05 at $5.4575.  Fund buying totaled 4 K on Monday

 
   

 

CORN/SORGHUM                          &n​bsp;                       &nb​sp;                        &nb​sp;           

·    &nb​sp;    ATI Research: U.S. corn crop size unchanged from last week at 14.594Bbu with national average yield of 175.7 bpa

·         ATI Research: Updated corn balance sheet; 14/15 usage dn 96mbu from last week, carryout up 96mbu to 2.367Bbu

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. corn harvest pegged at 65% vs. 46% last week, 71% last year and the 5-year  avg. of 73%.  The 19-point increase for the latest week looks to be one of the highest ever

·         Private consultant: 2014/15 corn crop est for Brazil reduced another 1.0 MMT due to possible cut in 2nd crop acreage

SOYBEANS/WHEAT

·         ATI Research: U.S. soybean crop size up 42mbu from last week at 3.978Bbu with national average yield of 47.7 bpa

·         ATI Research: Updated soybean balance sheet; 14/15 usage up 30mbu from last week, carryout up 12mbu to 430mbu

·         USDA Crop Progress: U.S. soybean harvest pegged at 83% vs. 70% last week, 85% last year and the 5-year  avg. of 83%

·         Private consultant: 2014/15 Brazil soybean crop est reduced another 1.0 MMT as late planting could lead to issues

·         USDA Crop Progress: Winter wheat planted, 90% vs. 89% avg.; but Illinois & Missouri still 14 & 11 points below avg.

·         ATI Research: HRW wheat balance sheet, 14/15 carryout at 207mbu. 15/16 carryout, 321mbu

ENERGY

·         Mixed but oil/RBOB/HO down hard:  QCLZ14, -$02.05 at $76.69; QRBZ,-$0.0476; QNGZ, +$.009; and QHOZ, -$.0503

·         Cash ethanol markets had a mixed tone on Monday: Chicago up 2; New York down 1 ½; Gulf added 1 ½; Tampa tacked on ½; Dallas steady; and LA was 1 ½ lower at $2.04 per gallon

·         RINs were lower: 2013’s off 1/8 to 45 ½-46; 2014’s down ¼ to 46-46 ¼; and 2015’s eased 3/8 to 45 ½-46

·         The Dec RBOB/Nov Ethanol spread lost nearly 7 cents—increased ethanol export outlook—to $.2626/gallon

LIVESTOCK/POULTRY                      &​nbsp;                       &n​bsp;            

·         Choice boxed beef values were 47-cents lower on Monday but are $1.53 higher compared to last week

·         The 5-Area Weekly Weighted Average steer price declined $1.33 last week to $167.46

·         USDA pork carcass cutout value increased 17-cents on Monday but is $2.09 lower compared to the previous week

·         CME Lean Hog Index down $1.32 to $90.06.  December futures up $0.825 to $88.85 and are $1.21 below the index

Sources: Bloomberg, Dow Jones, AP, T-storm Weather

 



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